The Detroit Lions are still mathematically alive in the playoff picture, but their margin for error has shrunk significantly as the season winds down.
Detroit’s 4–5 stretch over the past nine games has made the road to the postseason far more complicated. During that span, the Lions have been unable to build momentum, alternating wins and losses and slipping to the outside of the NFC playoff field looking in.
At the same time, both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have surged to the top of the NFC North standings. Chicago enters the weekend leading the division at 10–4, with Green Bay close behind at 9–4–1. The two rivals meet Saturday, and the outcome will have direct consequences for Detroit’s postseason hopes.
Currently sitting third at 8–6, the Lions are not in immediate danger of elimination before Week 17. While a third straight division title is a long shot, Detroit still has a viable path to either the NFC North crown or a Wild Card berth — provided a few key results fall their way.
Here’s how Saturday’s Bears–Packers game could shape the Lions’ outlook heading into their Week 16 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field.
If Green Bay Wins
A Packers victory is generally the more favorable result for Detroit. While it would push Green Bay back into first place, it would also reopen the door for the Lions to control their own playoff destiny.
If Chicago falls to 10–5 and Detroit wins its next game, the Lions could potentially overtake the Bears by winning out.
A Week 18 victory over Chicago would give Detroit the head-to-head tiebreaker in that scenario.
A Packers win also provides Detroit a bit of flexibility. While winning out would remain the cleanest path, the Lions could potentially survive one loss — though that would require Chicago to also lose next week against the San Francisco 49ers.
Though it wouldn’t immediately move Detroit into a playoff spot, a Green Bay win simplifies the path forward. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, Detroit’s postseason odds would rise from 27 percent to roughly 31 percent with a Packers victory.
If Chicago Wins
Chicago reclaimed the division lead after its earlier loss to Green Bay, completing an impressive turnaround. Since being blown out 52–14 by Detroit in Week 2 at Ford Field, the Bears have gone 10–2 — an unexpected surge that has reshaped the NFC North race.
That early-season Lions win could still prove critical, as Detroit will travel to Soldier Field for the rematch in the regular-season finale. If the Lions win that game and finish with the same record as Chicago, Detroit would hold the tiebreaker.
Should the Bears defeat the Packers on Saturday, Detroit’s playoff odds would take a modest hit. The New York Times playoff predictor projects the Lions’ chances would dip from 27 percent to about 22 percent.
In that scenario, Detroit would need help next week, likely rooting hard for San Francisco to beat Chicago. If the Lions win their next two games and both Chicago and Green Bay stumble, the regular-season finale could still feature the division title at stake.
Ben Johnson’s impact has been evident in Chicago’s resurgence, but a Bears win Saturday would narrow Detroit’s margin for error considerably.
What If They Tie?
A tie would be the least favorable outcome for Detroit. In that case, Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh would become an absolute must-win. If the Bears and Packers finish in a draw and the Lions then lose to the Steelers, Detroit would be officially eliminated from playoff contention.
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