Bracket Breakdown for BYU: Key Insights from the East Region
Who will the Cougars face in the upcoming weeks? Brigham Young Cougars center Keba Keita (13) reacts after a play against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images
As March Madness kicks off in just a few days, fans across the country are fixated on seed lines, potential upsets, and stats to gain insights into their brackets or their favorite team’s chances to advance past the first weekend.
BYU, securing a 6-seed in the East region, faces a bracket that holds both exciting opportunities and challenges. While only the first matchup matters at this stage, BYU fans will want to know what lies ahead if they make it through the opening round.
Tough Draw Against VCU (But a Favorable Location)
Luke Bamgboye
Mar 16, 2025; Washington, D.C., USA; VCU Rams forward Luke Bamgboye (9) dunks the ball as George Mason Patriots forward Zach Anderson (10) defends in the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
VCU is a formidable opponent. Ranked as the best 11-seed by several analytics sites, including Kenpom and EvanMiya, the Rams boast one of the top backcourts in the tournament, led by senior guards Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga, the A-10 player of the year. While they’re not the best shooters beyond Shulga, VCU still attempts a high volume of three-pointers (8th most in the tournament), aiming to keep up with BYU.
Their strength lies in defense. They rank 2nd in 2-point defense, force turnovers at an impressive rate, and frequently deploy a full-court press. Down low, Keba Keita and Fousseyni Traore will need to contend with Bamgboye, a top shot-blocker who averages 2.2 blocks per game without committing fouls.
While it’s a tough matchup for BYU—VCU is often seen as one of the tournament’s most under-seeded teams—there’s an upside. BYU will play the first weekend in Denver, Colorado, which, although not the Marriott Center, could provide an advantage due to the proximity for Cougar fans in Colorado, Utah, and nearby states, along with a shorter travel time.
The East Could See Fewer Upsets
Akron Zips
The Akron Zips men’s basketball team celebrates winning the Mid-American Conference Tournament championship game at Rocket Arena on March 15, 2025, in Cleveland, Ohio. | Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Upset predictions in March Madness are notoriously difficult to get right, but fans still give it a try. This year, many of the popular upset picks are located in other regions. UC San Diego, Yale, Colorado State, High Point, and McNeese State are all placed elsewhere in the bracket.
In the East region, Liberty may be the second-most likely team for an upset pick, though Dana Altman often guides even his average Oregon teams to the second weekend. Some may predict Akron to upset Arizona, but Akron’s metrics rank far below other 13-seeds. Additionally, Duke, the region’s 1-seed, avoided some of the toughest 8/9 matchups like Louisville, Gonzaga, and UConn, making their draw more favorable.
Wisconsin in the Second Round
Wisconsin Badgers
Mar 16, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Greg Gard, guard John Blackwell (25), and guard Kamari McGee (4) confer during a break against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
After playing Iowa State twice and unlikely to face Texas Tech, BYU’s second-round opponent is likely to be either Wisconsin or Kentucky. While a potential game against Kentucky sounds exciting, it’s shaping up to be a matchup with Wisconsin if both teams advance.
Like BYU, Wisconsin thrives on offense through three-point shooting, but unlike BYU, they are exceptional at limiting turnovers. Defenders like Richie Saunders and Trey Stewart will need to apply pressure to Wisconsin’s shooters, force turnovers, and make them work inside, where BYU holds an advantage with Keita and Fouss.
Individually, John Tonje leads Wisconsin with 19.2 points per game on efficient shooting splits (46.4/58.8/90.8). He’s an all-around player who can score from anywhere on the floor. If BYU falls behind, Tonje is the last player they want to foul. Moreover, Wisconsin is the nation’s top free-throw shooting team, converting over 82% from the line, so BYU must avoid falling behind late.
The Rest of the Region
Tyrese Proctor
Mar 15, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) reacts to his late three-point shot against Louisville in the 2025 ACC Conference Championship game at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
While VCU and Wisconsin stand out as the key teams for BYU, it’s worth examining the rest of the East region bracket. Fortunately for BYU, Houston is not the top seed here, though Duke is a strong favorite and widely considered the team to beat.
Alabama presents a dangerous Sweet 16 opponent, but their fast tempo makes them more vulnerable to an upset, as teams with adaptable tempos tend to go further. If Alabama falls early, BYU could meet Saint Mary’s in an intriguing Sweet 16 matchup, which would offer a potential WCC reunion.
At present, Duke is the overwhelming favorite to advance to the Final Four, with a 54.2% chance, according to EvanMiya, followed by Alabama at 20.5%, Wisconsin at 7.6%, Arizona at 7.2%, Saint Mary’s at 3.0%, VCU at 2.5%, and BYU at 2.3%.
While this region is currently Duke’s to lose, things can change quickly in March Madness. For BYU, the focus is clear: survive VCU, then upset Wisconsin. It’s time for the Cougars to prove their season’s worth, and making it to the second weekend would be a significant step in that direction.
