The Detroit Lions’ playoff hopes took a major setback in Week 13. Their disappointing loss to the Green Bay Packers not only damaged their chance to win the NFC North, but every Wild Card contender the Lions are competing with also picked up victories. Teams like the Bears, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, 49ers, Panthers, and Buccaneers all kept pace or gained ground.

As a result, Detroit’s postseason odds dropped between 28% and 43%, depending on the projection model.

But Week 14 brings a huge opportunity.

The Lions face the Dallas Cowboys in what may be their most important game of the year. A win boosts Detroit’s playoff percentage dramatically, gives them ground in the NFC North, and drops Dallas’ playoff hopes into single digits. The Bears and Packers also face each other, meaning Detroit is guaranteed help in the division race with a victory.

Below are the updated Detroit Lions playoff odds and how much they could swing based on Sunday’s result.

---

Detroit Lions Playoff Odds Heading Into Week 14

New York Times: 30% (down 43%)

FTN Fantasy (DVOA): 50.0% (down 32%)

ESPN: 44% (down 28%)

NextGenStats: 43% (down 33%)

Only FTN Fantasy currently gives the Lions a true 50/50 shot, while ESPN and NextGenStats remain cautiously optimistic. The New York Times model is the least favorable, using inputs like EPA, success rate, roster changes, weather, and game location to simulate the rest of the season.

---

How the Lions–Cowboys Game Impacts Detroit’s Playoff Chances

According to the New York Times simulator, Sunday’s matchup creates a massive postseason swing:

If the Lions beat the Cowboys: 45% playoff chance

If the Lions lose: 12% playoff chance

This single game shapes the remaining path:

Even if Detroit loses to Dallas but wins its final four games, the playoff chance reaches only 90%, despite finishing 11–6.

Any 3–1 finish after a loss drops their odds to 25% or lower.

However, if Detroit wins on Sunday:

A 3–1 finish jumps postseason odds to 95% or higher, as long as the loss isn’t to the Bears.

Even with a loss to Chicago, the Lions sit at a strong 83% playoff chance.

A 2–2 finish after a win still gives Detroit a 15–41% chance, depending on which games they drop.

Simply put: Beating the Cowboys keeps Detroit firmly alive. Losing puts the season on the edge.

---

Odds to Win the NFC North

New York Times: 5% (down 28%)

FTN Fantasy: 8.9% (down 34%)

ESPN: 8% (down 24%)

The Lions’ hope for a division title isn’t dead, but it’s clearly fading. Their best chance involves the Bears and Packers splitting their two remaining head-to-head matchups—but that scenario also hurts Detroit’s Wild Card positioning. Right now, the realistic target is leapfrogging at least one of those teams, not both.

---

Lions’ Updated Super Bowl Odds

4% chance to appear in the Super Bowl (down 2%)

5.5% chance to win the NFC (down 6.1%)

3.3% chance to win the Super Bowl (down 3.3%)