If you look only at the matchup on paper, the Detroit Lions appear well positioned to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Both teams enter the game at 8–6 and firmly in the playoff hunt, but oddsmakers and recent form suggest Detroit has the upper hand.
The problem? History hasn’t been kind to the Lions in this matchup.
Detroit has failed to defeat Pittsburgh since the turn of the century, going 0-5-1 against the Steelers during that span. Adding to the frustration, Pittsburgh famously lifted the Lombardi Trophy at Ford Field following Super Bowl XL in 2006. Now, another familiar nemesis returns to Detroit — quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The Lions opened the week as touchdown favorites at BetMGM, but the pressure is mounting. Detroit is trying to keep pace with the Bears and Packers in the NFC North, while also fending off competition for the final wild-card spots. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh holds a narrow lead in the AFC North, with Baltimore lurking close behind.
Rodgers, Ford Field, and unfinished business
Now 42, Rodgers has historically been comfortable playing indoors in Detroit. He owns an 8-5 record at Ford Field, highlighted by one of the most memorable plays in NFL history — a last-second Hail Mary touchdown in 2015 that stunned the Lions.
That said, his recent encounters with Detroit haven’t gone nearly as well. During Dan Campbell’s tenure, the Lions have flipped the script. In 2022, Detroit swept Green Bay, including a decisive finale at Lambeau that eliminated Rodgers’ Packers from playoff contention.
Rodgers acknowledged that moment earlier this week, noting it as a turning point for the franchise. Since then, Detroit has grown into a legitimate contender, reaching the NFC Championship Game in 2023 and posting a dominant regular season the following year.
What Rodgers hasn’t experienced recently is Ford Field at full throttle. The stadium has become one of the league’s loudest, fueled by belief in Campbell’s culture and a fan base fully invested in the team’s success.
Detroit facing urgency instead of comfort
After coming one win shy of a Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago, and squandering a stellar regular season last year with a disappointing playoff exit, the Lions now find themselves in unfamiliar territory — fighting just to get in.
Detroit trails both Green Bay and San Francisco for the NFC’s final wild-card positions. Quarterback Jared Goff acknowledged the stakes, framing the moment as a test of resolve rather than an ideal scenario.
This stretch, he said, will reveal what kind of team the Lions truly are when circumstances are less forgiving.
A clash of elite backfield duos
One area where both teams match up evenly is at running back.
Detroit’s tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been among the league’s most productive and versatile pairings for multiple seasons. Pittsburgh counters with its own dynamic duo in Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, who have quietly been one of the NFL’s most effective combinations.
Together, Warren and Gainwell have piled up over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and found the end zone 13 times. Their usage has fluctuated from week to week, but the results have remained steady. In their most recent outing, Gainwell carried the offense while Warren fought through illness.
A strange streak — and the absence of momentum
One of the most remarkable trends in the NFL belongs to Detroit. The Lions haven’t lost consecutive games in 59 straight contests, the longest active streak in the league and one that rivals historic runs from San Francisco in the late 1990s.
The last time Detroit experienced a true losing streak was in 2022, when a 1-6 start threatened to derail the season. Instead, the Lions responded by knocking off Green Bay and closing the year strong.
Ironically, while Detroit avoids losing streaks, it hasn’t built winning momentum either. The Lions haven’t strung together back-to-back wins since October. Over their last 10 games, the pattern has been simple: win, loss, repeat.
Campbell summed it up bluntly — before chasing streaks, they must take care of the next game.
Trouble on the Steelers’ offensive line
Pittsburgh’s offensive front has been tested recently, particularly at left tackle. Starter Broderick Jones was lost to injured reserve with a neck injury, and his replacement, veteran Andrus Peat, entered concussion protocol shortly after stepping in.
That has opened the door for Dylan Cook, a journeyman lineman who has spent years moving between practice squads and active rosters. Cook made his first NFL start Monday night and performed admirably, but his next assignment could be far more demanding.
If he starts again, he’ll likely face Lions star Aidan Hutchinson — a defender Rodgers recently labeled a “game-changer.”
Secondary depth under stress
Rodgers enters the game fresh off a highly efficient performance against Miami, throwing two touchdowns without mistakes. Slowing him down will be a tall order for a Detroit secondary dealing with attrition.
Several key defensive backs are unavailable or limited, including Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold, both on injured reserve. Kerby Joseph is still working his way back from injury, and Amik Robertson is nursing a hand issue.
Campbell admitted adjustments will be necessary schematically, but emphasized confidence in the plan — even if execution won’t be easy.
