If someone had predicted back in September that the Lions would be playing out the string after Christmas, it would’ve sounded absurd. Detroit entered the season with legitimate expectations — a team built to contend, not one watching the playoff race from the outside before the final week.

But that’s the reality now. The postseason is out of reach, yet the schedule still shows one last game: a Week 18 matchup in Chicago against the Bears, led by former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.  Ordinarily, beating a division rival to close the year would feel like a small win worth celebrating.
This time, though, winning might do more harm than good.
How Losing Helps More Than Winning

At first glance, the benefit is obvious: a loss improves Detroit’s draft position. For a team suddenly facing major offseason decisions, every draft slot matters.

But draft order isn’t the biggest factor here — the future schedule is.
As things stand, Detroit sits at the bottom of the NFC North. Finishing there would lock the Lions into a fourth-place schedule in 2026, which generally means facing other teams that struggled this season.
If Detroit climbs to third instead, the schedule becomes tougher.

A third-place finish would likely add matchups against teams like the Colts, Commanders, and potentially the Rams — opponents that raise the overall difficulty level.
Here’s the key point:
A loss to Chicago guarantees Detroit stays in last place and secures the easier schedule.

A win, combined with a Packers victory over the Vikings, bumps the Lions up to third, making the 2026 slate noticeably harder.

Suddenly, beating the Bears doesn’t look like such a positive outcome.
Why Resting Starters Makes Sense
From a purely strategic standpoint, it would make sense for Dan Campbell to limit snaps for core players or sit them entirely.

There’s no playoff incentive, no standings advantage, and no reason to risk injuries in a game that could actually damage next season’s outlook.

This is the perfect opportunity to evaluate younger players, test depth, and protect the long-term health of the roster.
Teams around the league make these decisions every year once their fate is sealed. It’s not quitting — it’s planning ahead.
The Complication: Dan Campbell’s Mentality
Of course, logic doesn’t always win out.

Dan Campbell isn’t the type of coach who embraces strategic losses. His reputation is built on relentless competition, regardless of circumstance. Asking him to dial things back goes against everything that defines his approach.

And honestly, that mindset is a huge reason players and fans respect him.
Still, there are moments when the smartest move isn’t the most aggressive one — it’s the one that sets you up best for what comes next.