The Detroit Lions are staring down an unthinkable scenario as they prepare to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Entering the 2025 NFL season, the idea that Detroit might miss the NFC playoffs seemed almost impossible.

Yet here the Lions are—still alive, but no longer in control of their own postseason fate.

With only seven NFC teams qualifying for the playoffs, Detroit currently sits eighth in the standings. Even if the Lions win all three remaining games, their playoff hopes hinge on help from others.

Lions’ Playoff Chances Depend on NFC Rivals

For Detroit to qualify, at least one of the following teams must lose two or more games down the stretch:

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears

Seattle’s dramatic overtime win on Thursday night significantly lowered the odds of that scenario playing out. As a result, the Lions must not only win—but also hope the right tiebreaker combinations fall in their favor.

One example: if the Packers and Bears tie on Saturday night, a Lions loss to Pittsburgh would immediately eliminate Detroit from playoff contention.

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Step One: Lions Must Beat the Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite the complex playoff math, Dan Campbell has made the message clear—focus only on Pittsburgh.

“Go to work. Go back to work,” Campbell told his team, urging players to ignore outside scenarios and control what they can.

The Lions may actually have the edge on paper.

Jared Goff Playing Elite Football

Despite an inconsistent season overall, Jared Goff has been outstanding:

3,672 passing yards

29 touchdowns

5 interceptions

QB rating above 110

According to FOX Sports, Goff currently ranks as the No. 2 quarterback in the NFL, trailing only Matthew Stafford.

Detroit’s offensive line—long a concern—has also improved in recent weeks, allowing Goff to get the ball out quickly and efficiently.

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Lions Defense Could Be the Difference vs. Aaron Rodgers

Stopping Aaron Rodgers will be critical. Campbell praised Rodgers’ quick release and elite processing speed, calling him as dangerous as ever from the pocket.

However, Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard noted a key change: Rodgers is no longer extending plays with his legs the way he once did.

That could open the door for Detroit’s pass rush.

Hutchinson Leading Historic Pass Rush

Aidan Hutchinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad just became the first Lions duo to each record 9.0 sacks in a single season.

Hutchinson famously intercepted Rodgers as a rookie in 2022 and could be a game-changer again.

With Pittsburgh leaning more heavily on the passing game, disrupting Rodgers’ rhythm—especially to targets like DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth—will be crucial.

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Lions Must Establish the Gibbs–Montgomery Run Game

The Lions are at their best when both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are involved.

Detroit’s wins this season share a common theme: Montgomery carries a heavier workload.

Notable performances:

151 yards, 2 TDs vs. Ravens (Week 3)

18 carries, 1 TD vs. Bengals

71 yards vs. Commanders

In each of those games, Detroit won.

Over the past three weeks, Montgomery has scored a rushing touchdown in every game despite limited snaps. When both backs are on the field, defenses are forced to pick their poison.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Leads Elite Passing Attack

The Lions boast one of the NFL’s most dangerous receiving duos:

Amon-Ra St. Brown

94 receptions

1,140 yards

11 touchdowns

On pace for his fourth straight Pro Bowl

Jameson Williams

52 receptions

936 yards

7 touchdowns

Nearing his second consecutive 1,000-yard season

Campbell praised Williams’ growth, discipline, and route precision—calling him a complete professional who has “taken off” this season.

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A Must-Win Game for Detroit

The formula is simple:

Win against Pittsburgh

Win out

Hope NFC rivals stumble

The Lions thrive when their backs are against the wall. Notably, Detroit has not lost back-to-back games since 2022.

As of Thursday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Lions as seven-point favorites over the Steelers.

First things first—beat Pittsburgh.

If they do, Detroit can turn its attention to a massive Christmas matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, with playoff dreams still alive.