Detroit’s explosive offense put on a show against Dallas, torching the Cowboys’ defense in a 44–30 victory. The win strengthened Dan Campbell’s team’s postseason outlook, but despite the momentum, the Lions still find themselves just outside the current playoff field.
According to SportsLine’s projection model, Detroit enters the week at 8–5 with a 52% probability of qualifying for the playoffs. The Athletic’s simulator is more cautious, placing the Lions’ chances at 39% as they prepare to face Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
NFC North Snapshot
1. Green Bay Packers (9–3–1)
2. Chicago Bears (9–4)
3. Detroit Lions (8–5)
4. Minnesota Vikings (5–8)
Green Bay holds a significant edge in the division race, sitting 1.5 games ahead of Detroit and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker after sweeping the season series. Chicago remains just one game ahead of the Lions, and a Week 18 matchup between the two could ultimately determine postseason fate if standings tighten.
Current NFC Playoff Landscape
1. Los Angeles Rams (10–3)
2. Green Bay Packers (9–3–1)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8–5)
4. Carolina Panthers (7–6)
5. Seattle Seahawks (10–3)
6. San Francisco 49ers (9–4)
7. Chicago Bears (9–4)
8. Detroit Lions (8–5)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (6–6–1)
11. Minnesota Vikings (5–8)
Philadelphia and Carolina currently hold higher seeds by virtue of leading their respective divisions, not because of superior records.
A victory over the Rams would significantly boost Detroit’s outlook. The Lions already own a head-to-head win over Los Angeles, and with Green Bay and Chicago set to face each other next week, at least one division rival will fall closer to Detroit in the standings. Both the Packers and Bears are favored in their games this week, adding further intrigue to the playoff race.
Defeating the NFC West-leading Rams will be no small task. Detroit must travel west to face a roster loaded with talent across the board. Still, the potential payoff is massive.
The Athletic’s playoff predictor shows Detroit’s postseason odds climbing to 60% with a win—a 21-point increase from their current projection. A loss, however, drops those chances to 31%. Notably, this Rams matchup is the final game on Detroit’s schedule in which they are currently listed as underdogs. Finishing the season 3–1 would put the Lions in strong position, though it would not guarantee a playoff berth.
SportsLine’s numbers tell a similar story. A Lions victory boosts their playoff odds to 71.4%, while a defeat cuts them down to 36.9%.
While this game does not carry the same “do-or-die” weight as last week’s showdown with Dallas, falling to the Rams would almost certainly require Detroit to run the table over its final three games to keep playoff hopes alive.
Complicating matters further, ESPN’s matchup predictor favors every other Wild Card contender by at least 7.5 points this week—except for Green Bay, which is only a 2.5-point favorite against Denver.
The path ahead is clear and unforgiving. Dan Campbell’s squad has been challenged, and how the Lions respond may determine whether January football returns to Detroit.
