Detroit helped its own cause with Thursday’s victory over the Cowboys, and Sunday brought more clarity to the NFC playoff picture while the Lions were idle.

Green Bay handed Chicago its first loss in more than a month, ending the Bears’ five-game surge with a 28–21 decision. The result moved the Packers into the NFC North lead and gave Detroit a clearer view of what it needs the rest of the way.

According to The New York Times playoff projections, the Lions now hold a 44% chance of reaching the postseason after Green Bay’s win. Had the Bears emerged victorious, that number would have dipped to about 40%.

So where does Detroit go from here? In short, Lions fans will want Green Bay to beat Chicago again when the two teams meet in two weeks. Because Detroit dropped both of its games against the Packers, the division crown is realistically out of reach unless the Lions finish two wins better than Green Bay over the final month — a scenario that’s possible, but far less inviting than catching the Bears. A Chicago sweep at the hands of the Packers would create the most favorable setup for Detroit.

Chicago’s remaining slate includes the Browns, Packers, 49ers and Lions. That looming game against San Francisco could be another important pivot point. The Bears slid from the NFC’s top seed to the seventh following Sunday’s loss, and although they still lead Detroit by one game, the Lions hold the head-to-head advantage after their earlier meeting. That makes the season-ending game in Chicago potentially season-defining.

San Francisco, which had a bye this week, also sits a game ahead of Detroit. Without a direct matchup on the schedule, the 49ers currently possess the tiebreaker due to a stronger conference record. The Lions’ postseason percentage swings by about 11% depending on whether the 49ers beat the Bears in Week 17 — a 49ers win would help Detroit heading into the final weekend.

Elsewhere in the NFC, the Rams reclaimed the top seed at 10–3 after dismantling Arizona. Detroit trails Los Angeles by two games and will travel west next weekend for a pivotal meeting. A win over the Rams would dramatically strengthen Detroit’s chances — the NYT model jumps Detroit to 66% with a victory, but drops them to 35% if they come up short.

Around the league, New Orleans stunned Tampa Bay, a result that doesn’t hurt Detroit since the NFC South is almost certain to send only its division winner. Seattle also beat Atlanta, giving the Seahawks a two-game cushion over the Lions in the wild-card race. Seattle holds a one-win advantage in the NFC record tiebreaker as well, making the chase for either the Seahawks or 49ers particularly difficult, especially since both teams still face the injury-depleted Colts.

Given all of this, overtaking Chicago remains Detroit’s most realistic route into the postseason — unless the Lions run the table. If Detroit wins out, that would give it the edge over the Bears thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker, regardless of Chicago’s other results. Even if Detroit drops one more game, a Week 18 win combined with a single Chicago loss to the Browns, Packers or 49ers could be enough.

NFC Playoff Standings Entering Sunday Night Football

1. Los Angeles Rams (10–3)

2. Green Bay Packers (9–3–1)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8–4; play Monday)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–6)

5. Seattle Seahawks (10–3) – Wild card

6. San Francisco 49ers (9–4) – Wild card

7. Chicago Bears (9–4) – Wild card

In the mix:
8. Detroit Lions (8–5)
9. Carolina Panthers (7–6)
10. Dallas Cowboys (6–6–1)

A full breakdown of the playoff picture — along with a Week 15 rooting guide — will be available Monday at MLiv