Georgia, the surprise package of Euro 2024, faces a hard assignment as they try to achieve one of the continent’s greatest upsets against Spain in the last 16. La Roja won Group B with a perfect record, while the Georgians advanced to the knockout phase after defeating Portugal. Now, the odd combination competes for a place in the quarterfinals.
Spain won all three group games at a European Championship for the first time since 2008, when their era of worldwide domination began. Despite making ten changes, they still took maximum points from their final group encounter against Albania. Spain won 1-0 over Albania to cap off their group campaign, with Ferran Torres scoring early. They will, however, face a Georgia team full of confidence after winning their first big international competition against Portugal the previous time out.
Willy Sagnol’s team has won the hearts of football fans all over the world, but they are mindful of the grandeur of the task ahead, having fought Spain in the qualifications. Luis de la Fuente’s Spain must proceed with care, as their recent performance in the knockout stages of major championships has been dismal. They were eliminated in the final 16 of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, losing on penalties to Russia and Morocco, respectively. They did, however, go to the Euro 2020 semi-finals, where they lost to Italy on penalties.
Spain has not conceded a goal since De la Fuente took over. The last time a Spanish team preserved four consecutive clean sheets in a major final was in 2012, when they previously won Europe. Before capturing the Henri Delaunay trophy again, La Roja must improve on their performance in Qatar 2022, where they were eliminated in the final 16 by Morocco. They were once again pitted against in-form outsiders.
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So far, Spain has won six of seven matches against Georgia in all tournaments, including the qualifying round for the summer finals. They won both games by an aggregate of eight goals: 7-1 away and 3-1 at home. Key Stats This will be Spain’s seventh meeting with Georgia, but their first in a major tournament. La Roja has won six of their seven encounters against the minnows across all competitions, dating back to 2012.
Spain won both qualification games by a combined score of 10-2 (7-1 away, 3-1 at home), but the tournament version of Georgia might be a much tougher test. Prediction: Spain has a 75% probability of winning in Cologne, according to the Opta supercomputer. Georgia has a somewhat larger draw projected, at 14.3%. Spain is predicted to win the tie in 82.1% of simulations, while Georgia beats the odds and advances to the quarter-finals in the remaining 17.9%. La Roja are the second favourites to win Euro 2024, with 17.2% of simulations predicting their victory.
