preview and prediction for the Lions vs. Buccaneers Week 2 matchup, analyzing the game on paper.
Certainly! Here’s a paraphrased version of the text with the same word count:Our Week 2 preview for the 2024 Detroit Lions season continues, focusing on their rematch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield.
The question is whether the Lions can improve to 2-0 for the season and also against last year’s playoff teams.
Detroit’s passing game was highly effective last season, but its Week 1 performance leaves some uncertainty. Despite the Rams’ average pass defense from last season, they managed to challenge the Lions.
Jared Goff had moments of brilliance but did not achieve the consistency seen in 2023.Coach Dan Campbell noted that the passing game often takes time to get into rhythm, as it relies heavily on timing and coordination among the quarterback, receivers, and offensive line. Campbell expressed some surprise at the lack of precision but acknowledged that it’s a normal part of the early season.
Despite the Rams’ defense not making notable adjustments to neutralize key players like Amon-Ra St. Brown (13 yards) and Sam LaPorta (45 yards), the Lions’ passing offense struggled to find its groove.Jameson Williams’ standout performance in Week 1, with five catches for 121 yards, showcased his development, including a 52-yard deep pass and a variety of route runs.One area of concern from Week 1 was the Lions’ pass protection.
Goff faced pressure more frequently than usual, with Detroit ranking 12th in both PFF’s pass blocking grade and ESPN’s pass block win rate. This level of performance is below the high standards set by last year’s team.
Last season, the Buccaneers had difficulties defending the pass, and their performance against rookie QB Jayden Daniels last week wasn’t particularly telling.
The Bucs had the ninth-worst coverage grade from PFF (56.0) and 21st in pass rush grade (60.6), though they were eighth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.The health of the Buccaneers’ secondary is a key factor this week.
They still have talented players like cornerback Jamel Dean, nickelback Christian Izien (potentially transitioning to safety), and safety Jordan Whitehead.
However, they might rely heavily on their depth, which could be an opportunity for the Lions.The Bucs’ pass rush could be a game-changer, but they might miss Calijah Kancey due to a calf injury. Nevertheless, Yaya Diaby and Lavonte David, who combined for eight pressures last week, could be impactful.Player to watch: Jameson Williams.
Given his impressive Week 1 performance and the Bucs’ secondary issues, Williams might make another significant impact this week.Advantage:
Lions +1.5. Although Lavonte David, a top linebacker, poses a potential challenge for Goff, the Lions’ roster overall appears stronger than the Bucs’.
The cautious estimate considers the limited data, Tampa’s strong defensive coaching, and Detroit’s modest Week 1 showing.
In Week 1, the Lions’ rushing attack was largely effective, despite a mid-game dip. They demonstrated that their 2023 rushing success continues into this season.
The Bucs had one of the top run defenses last year and stifled Detroit’s run game in their initial matchup.
However, Detroit found success in the postseason game (26 rushes, 114 yards, 2 TDs).The Bucs’ run defense may have struggled in Week 1, but this may not be indicative of their overall capability.
The Commanders’ 138 rushing yards included 88 from quarterback Jayden Daniels, while their running backs had just 50 yards on 14 attempts (3.6 YPC). Considering the Commanders’ poor run defense last year, this performance may not be fully reflective of Tampa’s run defense.Player to watch: Vita Vea.
The dominant nose tackle had a team-high three run stops last week and was second on the team with 23 last year. His strength is a significant challenge for opponents.Advantage: Lions +1.
The Lions had limited success against the Bucs’ run defense last year, but the current Bucs’ injuries and Detroit’s established rushing game give the Lions a slight edge.The Buccaneers’ passing offense was average last season but showed improvement toward the end.
Baker Mayfield’s strong Week 1 performance is notable, though it came against a weak Commanders team, which was last in pass defense DVOA last year.
Mayfield’s effectiveness against poor defenses is evident, but his performance against tougher teams remains to be fully seen.
Mayfield’s upward trajectory with the Bucs, combined with receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and rookie Jalen McMillan, who had a touchdown catch last week, suggests a promising passing game.
However, the Bucs have concerns on the interior of their offensive line, and right tackle Luke Goedeke’s potential absence due to a concussion could be problematic.
In Week 1, Mayfield avoided several sacks, so Detroit must improve its ability to finish defensive plays.
The Lions’ pass defense has undergone changes this offseason, and its effectiveness remains uncertain after Week 1.
The pass rush showed improvement, ranking 10th in pass rush win rate and PFF pass rush grade, but faced backups.
With Marcus Davenport likely out, Tristan Wirfs will face less resistance from Detroit’s pass rushers.
The Lions’ secondary had mixed results, with opportunities to intercept Matthew Stafford’s passes but also allowing some successful throws.Player to watch: Mike Evans.
Detroit struggled with Cooper Kupp, and Evans presents a different challenge. The Lions’ secondary must maintain its effectiveness against deep passes, as Evans had a high average depth of target last year.Advantage:
Bucs +1.5. Mayfield’s ability to extend plays could expose Detroit’s secondary, though Detroit’s interior pass rush and safety duo could make a difference.
The Bucs’ run game under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen aims for a stronger emphasis on rushing. The early results, however, were not impressive.
The Commanders’ defense limited the Bucs’ rushing to just 2.79 yards per carry, with a significant run from rookie Bucky Irving inflating the stats.
The Lions’ run defense was strong last year and shows promise again this season. With DJ Reader joining the lineup, Detroit’s defense could further challenge Tampa’s run game.Player to watch: Reader vs. Barton.
Reader’s performance against the Bucs’ rookie center, who struggled in Week 1, will be crucial.Advantage: Lions +3.
Despite being cautious early in the season, the Lions’ advantage in this matchup is significant. While Mayfield’s mobility might pose challenges, the overall matchup favors Detroit.
Last week’s prediction had the Lions winning 31-24, a reasonably accurate forecast. The Lions’ running game and defense exceeded expectations, although the passing game had some struggles.
The overall assessment of Detroit’s 2024 team remains positive, with an expectation for improved performance in both rushing and defense.I predict a Lions +3 advantage for this game.
While Mayfield could keep the Bucs competitive, Detroit’s strength across the board suggests a favorable outcome for the Lions.