I often criticize the common explanation fans and media use when an NFL team unexpectedly loses:  “They must’ve gotten overconfident!” Most of the time, it’s a lazy and simplistic take on a complex game with many factors to evaluate. However, after some reflection and discussion with knowledgeable football minds, I think the Dallas Cowboys *may* have gotten overconfident against the Saints. Let me explain.

Earlier Tuesday, I posted about the illogical reasoning behind why linebacker DeMarvion Overshown saw less playing time in Week 2 after a standout Week 1. In the post, I included a quote from Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who surprisingly claimed they didn’t expect to use many base packages against the Saints.

“This week we didn’t anticipate being in as many base packages,” Zimmer said in Monday’s press conference, explaining why Overshown didn’t play as much.

But let’s set aside Overshown for now and ask: How did they not expect to need base defense? The Saints hired Klint Kubiak, a disciple of the Shanahan wide zone offense, which forces defenses to play base with formations featuring multiple tight ends and backs.

In Week 1, the Saints used 11 personnel just 32% of the time, ranking 30th in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. They ran 12, 21, or 22 personnel 61% of the time, which often requires base defense.

And here’s the kicker: I don’t believe the Cowboys didn’t know this. They study film and have access to all the data. This led me to conclude in my earlier post that they were likely lying about why Overshown didn’t play.

But shoutout to Tom Downey from *Cowboys Report by Chat Sports*, who tweeted in response: “This team expected to shut them down, control the ball, and get the Saints into a negative game script like Week 1.”

Tom’s probably right. The Cowboys had to know the Saints would force them into base defense, but maybe they believed they could take control early, just like they did against the Browns when they led 20-3 at halftime. Then the Saints would have to pass, and Dallas could play nickel defense.

Otherwise, why wouldn’t they expect to need base defense against a team that used 11 personnel so rarely?

Instead, the Saints hit the Cowboys hard, as Derek Carr dropped back 18 times, scoring 44 points with 12 play-action passes and four screens. If that was the plan… well, you get it.

Again, I’m not one to simplify a game with “they got overconfident,” but Tom’s theory is the only one that explains Zimmer’s odd comment.