The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have long been bitter rivals in the National League East, but as they meet in the 2024 National League Division Series (NLDS), it’s clear that they have more in common than ever before. Both teams have built their lineups around star power, boasting some of the most potent offensive weapons in baseball. This season, both the Mets and Phillies ranked among the top 10 in key offensive categories, including runs scored, home runs, OPS, and wRC+.

Offensive Firepower on Display

The NLDS between these two powerhouses has already lived up to expectations. In Game 2, fans were treated to a dramatic back-and-forth battle, with the Phillies tying the game in the 6th inning, only for the Mets to take the lead in the 7th. Philadelphia responded in the 8th to regain the advantage, but the Mets tied it up once again in the 9th, before the Phillies walked it off in the bottom of the inning to even the series.

One notable trend has been the late-inning rallies that both teams have relied on. Across Games 1 and 2, 18 of the 21 total runs were scored in the 6th inning or later. These late offensive outbursts highlight a potential weakness shared by both teams: their bullpens. With so much offensive firepower on both sides, the series could be decided by which bullpen is more reliable in clutch situations.

Pitching Depth the Deciding Factor?

While their bullpens may be a concern, both the Mets and Phillies have relied heavily on their starting pitching throughout the 2024 season. Both teams finished in the top five in MLB for innings pitched by their starters, with sub-4.00 ERAs to show for it. The Phillies boasted the better rotation, led by Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Aaron Nola, while the Mets leaned on Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson.

The depth of the Mets’ rotation could give them an edge, with Kodai Senga returning in this series to add another reliable arm. The Phillies, on the other hand, have top-end talent, with Wheeler being the best pitcher in this matchup. The wild card for the Phillies could be Ranger Suarez, who has a proven track record in the postseason but struggled in the second half of the regular season.

As the series progresses, it’s likely that starting pitching depth will be key. Both teams have enough quality arms to mitigate their bullpen concerns, but whichever manager can better navigate these challenges may be the one to advance.

Bullpen Woes Could Be the Decider

Despite their strengths, both teams have seen inconsistency from their relievers throughout the year. The Phillies’ bullpen ranked sixth in fWAR but was middle-of-the-pack in ERA, while the Mets bullpen led the league in strikeouts but struggled with control and consistency.

With both teams so closely matched offensively and in their starting rotations, it may all come down to which bullpen can deliver in the high-pressure moments of October. As this series wears on, bullpen management could be the key to victory, with each team’s Achilles heel exposed under the bright lights of postseason baseball.

Only time will tell which team will come out on top in this hard-fought series. But one thing is clear: the Mets and Phillies, for all their differences, are more alike than ever, and their NLDS matchup is shaping up to be a classic.