As we head into Week 6, the Detroit Lions are set to face the Dallas Cowboys, seeking to break a six-game losing streak against them, including five consecutive losses on the road.

The last time the Lions emerged victorious in this matchup was back in 2013.

All statistics referenced are sourced from NFL Pro. Let’s delve into the challenges the Lions will face against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys will be missing key defensive players, including starting edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, rookie Marshawn Kneeland, and linebacker Eric Kendricks, who has been pivotal in defensive communication.

If Kendricks is unable to play,

DeMarvion Overshow, Damone Clark, or Donovan Wilson could step in as the green dot communicator, depending on Nick Vigil’s status, as he is currently listed as questionable.

This situation mirrors the Week 4 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who were similarly short-handed on defense.

The Cowboys’ injury woes come at a time when their run defense is already vulnerable, making it an uphill battle against the Lions’ strong rushing attack.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks last in the NFL, allowing an average of +0.17 EPA per rush, while the Lions’ offense sits in third place, averaging +0.10 EPA per rush.

This disparity suggests that the Lions can effectively dictate the pace of the game and control the clock during their visit to Dallas.

Examining the data further reveals more concerning trends for the Cowboys.

Despite frequently stacking the box with eight or more defenders (33.3% of the time) and utilizing fewer light boxes (only 24.2% of the time), they struggle to stop the run effectively.

Their run defense currently ranks last in the league in Run Stuff Rate, managing to stop only 10.5% of run plays for no gain or loss. In contrast, the Lions rank 11th, getting stuffed on only 15.5% of their runs.

This means the Lions are likely to stay in favorable down-and-distance situations throughout the game

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are expected to play significant roles in the Lions’ offensive game plan.

Frank Ragnow, returning after a brief absence due to a partially torn pectoral muscle, will be crucial at the line of scrimmage.

His matchup against 2023 first-round draft pick Mazi Smith, who has a disappointing 30.9 PFF Defensive Grade (ranking 130th out of 131 qualifying interior defensive linemen), could be pivotal for the Lions’ success on the ground.

The Lions also possess a tactical advantage concerning pre-snap motion.

The Cowboys’ defense is last in the NFL in both EPA per play against motion (+0.17) and EPA per pass against motion (+0.30), indicating significant vulnerabilities when faced with offensive movement.

With Kendricks potentially absent, the Cowboys’ communication and execution could further falter.

The Lions utilize motion on 50.25 snaps per game, ranking second in the NFL.

Expect offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to leverage this tactic to create confusion among Cowboys defenders, potentially leading to substantial gains for Montgomery or Gibbs, who are yet to break a rush longer than 24 yards this season.

Prescott’s Deep Passing Success

One of the highlights of last season was Dak Prescott’s remarkable escape from pressure in his own end zone, resulting in a 92-yard touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb.

This season, Prescott continues to excel on deep passes, boasting a 109.7 passer rating on throws of 20 or more air yards, ranking him third among quarterbacks.

He also enjoys a +15.6% completion percentage over expectation (also third) and a +0.76 EPA per drop back (sixth).

Lamb has been a key target for Prescott, with three of his nine deep completions going to him, while Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin have each contributed with two receptions on deep passes.

The matchup between the Lions and Cowboys in Week 6 presents a significant opportunity for Detroit to capitalize on Dallas’ defensive weaknesses, particularly in run defense and communication issues stemming from injuries.

With a potent rushing attack and strategic use of motion, the Lions could dictate the flow of the game and finally secure a victory against the Cowboys.

As Prescott continues to perform well in the deep passing game, the Cowboys will need to find ways to counteract the Lions’ offensive strengths to remain competitive.

In summary, the Lions are poised to make a strong statement against the Cowboys, leveraging their rushing game and innovative offensive strategies to overcome their recent struggles in this rivalry.