The Detroit Lions aim to keep their dominant season on track, but with several key injuries and the Chicago Bears showing signs of improvement, can an upset be on the horizon? We break down the stats and what to expect from this Thanksgiving Day showdown.

Lions Offense: Can They Overcome Key Injuries?

With a 10-1 record, the Detroit Lions have been one of the most potent teams in the NFL this season. But despite their impressive standing, the road ahead might not be as easy as it seems. The Lions’ offensive engine, particularly quarterback Jared Goff, has been humming along all season, ranking among the best in multiple key categories, including 9.0 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 111.5, both ranking first in the league. However, a key injury on the offensive line could be a vulnerability.

Left tackle Taylor Decker is likely out, and his replacement, Dan Skipper, has struggled in limited action this season. Skipper’s weak pass-blocking grade and the Lions’ already-moderate pressure rate could give the Bears’ defense a glimmer of hope. While the Bears’ pass rush has been underwhelming, led by Montez Sweat and Andrew Billings, any cracks in Detroit’s offensive line could be exploited.

Advantage: Lions (though Decker’s absence puts a damper on the matchup).

The Run Game: Lions’ Strength Against Bears’ Weakness

When it comes to running the football, Detroit is nearly unstoppable. The Lions’ offense ranks second in the league in rushing, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been a dynamic duo in the backfield, with Montgomery excelling in broken tackles and yards after contact. The Bears’ defense, however, ranks 30th against the run, giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry.

The Lions have been able to consistently run the ball against every opponent this season, and it’s hard to imagine the Bears’ defense, which has allowed over 100 rushing yards in 8 of their 11 games, providing much resistance. In fact, the Bears’ poor performance against the run since their bye week has only made matters worse for them. Detroit’s offensive line, which excels in run blocking, should overpower Chicago’s defense in this matchup.

Advantage: Lions.

Bears’ Passing Game: Struggles Amidst Signs of Improvement

The Bears’ offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, particularly in the passing game, ranking 26th overall. However, the recent performances of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams show some signs of life. Williams has been more efficient since the Bears’ offensive coordinator change, with his time to throw decreasing from 2.9 seconds to 2.42 seconds on average. This change has made a noticeable difference, as Williams has been more effective when getting the ball out quickly.

Despite this, Williams and the Bears will face a daunting task against Detroit’s top-ranked pass defense. The Lions are exceptional in nearly every statistical category, from allowing the fewest passer rating (72.7) to ranking first in interceptions with 14. The absence of Detroit’s top cornerback Carlton Davis could be a small crack in their otherwise impenetrable defense, but the Bears’ passing attack still seems outmatched.

Advantage: Lions.

Bears’ Defensive Vulnerabilities: Can the Lions Exploit Them?

While the Lions’ offense is in great shape, it’s worth noting that the Bears’ pass defense, ranked 10th in the league, has struggled of late. In the last two games, Chicago’s defense has allowed a whopping 591 yards and three touchdowns to quarterbacks Jordan Love and Sam Darnold. A lack of consistency in the pass rush and the Bears’ reliance on cornerback Jaylon Johnson to shut down one side of the field could leave them vulnerable to Goff’s quick and efficient passing game.

In particular, the Lions could look to target Bears’ cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who has struggled this season, giving Goff an opportunity to exploit mismatches downfield. The Bears’ defense, while solid overall, may not have enough to neutralize Detroit’s offense, especially with injuries to key players like Decker.

Advantage: Lions.

The Bottom Line: Will the Bears Pull off an Upset?

The statistical breakdown leans heavily in the Lions’ favor, especially in the areas of run offense and pass defense. However, the Bears are not without their strengths. If Chicago can continue to take advantage of their quick-passing offense, avoid turnovers, and perhaps catch Detroit off guard with a few big plays, an upset could be possible.

The Lions’ depth and overall talent make them the favorite in this matchup, but with the absence of key players and the Bears showing recent improvement, this game could end up being closer than expected. Ultimately, Detroit’s dominance on both sides of the ball will likely shine through, but the Bears should not be completely dismissed.

Final Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 20. While the Bears have some potential, the Lions’ offensive firepower and top-tier defense should prove too much to overcome.