Week 15 sets the stage for an epic clash between two Rust Belt teams that have become powerhouses in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills (10-3) and the Detroit Lions (12-1) are battling for dominance, each aiming for the top seed in their respective conferences. This matchup promises to be a high-stakes game, with both teams solidifying their status as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Bills’ playoff positioning suffered after a shootout loss to the Los Angeles Rams, leaving them with no margin for error in their quest for the AFC’s top seed. On the other hand, the Lions have a slight edge in the NFC, leading by one game and controlling their destiny. With the second-best odds for a Super Bowl showdown, this game might offer a tantalizing preview of what’s to come.

Detroit’s Rushing Attack: A Two-Headed Monster

The Lions boast an elite rushing duo in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who have earned the nickname “Sonic & Knuckles.” These two backs share the workload seamlessly, with no drop-off in production regardless of who’s on the field.

Detroit’s ground game is a powerhouse, averaging 151.1 rushing yards per game (fourth in the NFL) and scoring 22 rushing touchdowns (also fourth). They’re not just about volume; the Lions rank sixth in expected points added per rush (EPA/rush) and have a 45.9% success rate, the fifth-highest in the league. Their explosive plays stand out: Detroit has 54 runs of 10 or more yards, and Gibbs leads the NFL in explosive run rate, hitting big gains on 17.8% of his carries.

Montgomery brings power and consistency, excelling in short-yardage situations and ranking second in the league with 12 rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Gibbs adds a dynamic edge with his speed and elusiveness, recording 48 runs where he’s reached 15+ mph (fifth in the NFL). Together, they’ve forced 251 missed tackles over the past two seasons, more than any other backfield duo.

Their success is amplified by Detroit’s stellar offensive line, which is tied for the third-highest run-blocking grade (77.1) per Pro Football Focus. The line generates 1.71 yards before contact per attempt (sixth-best) and thrives on outside runs, where the Lions excel 59.1% of the time. Simply put, Detroit knows how to dominate on the ground.

Buffalo’s Run Defense Faces a Test

Buffalo’s defense relies heavily on a 4-2-5 scheme, with four linemen, two linebackers, and five defensive backs on the field for 97.5% of their snaps—the highest rate in the league. While this setup helps defend the pass, it leaves the Bills vulnerable against the run.

The Bills allow 4.7 yards per carry (seventh-most in the NFL) and have the highest explosive run rate against them at 14.5%. Their four-man front, deployed on 80.8% of snaps, has struggled to handle physical rushing attacks, as evidenced by last week’s loss to the Rams. Los Angeles exposed Buffalo’s weaknesses with misdirection plays and capitalized on poor tackling and block-shedding by the Bills’ defenders.

Taron Johnson, one of the league’s premier run-defending defensive backs, has been a bright spot. However, the Bills’ reliance on light boxes (six or fewer defenders) on 51.6% of snaps leaves them outmatched against power-rushing teams like the Lions.

Learning from the Packers

The Green Bay Packers may have provided a blueprint for slowing down Detroit’s rushing attack. In Week 14, they limited the Lions to just 113 rushing yards on 34 attempts (3.3 yards per carry) by using heavy defensive boxes on 70.6% of plays. Stacked boxes with eight or more defenders accounted for 38.2% of Green Bay’s defensive strategy, forcing Detroit to become more one-dimensional.

Buffalo could adopt a similar approach, incorporating heavier boxes and run-focused alignments. Success will hinge on discipline and tackling fundamentals—areas where Buffalo has occasionally struggled this season.

How the Bills Can Contain Detroit’s Rushing Game

If Buffalo hopes to stifle Detroit’s ground attack, they’ll need to make adjustments in three key areas:

1. Deploy Heavier Boxes:
The Bills could benefit from moving away from their typical light-box strategy. Adding a third linebacker, such as Dorian Williams, who stepped up earlier this season, could bolster their front seven. Pairing him with Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard might provide the physicality needed to compete with Detroit’s run game.

2. Force Inside Runs:
The Lions thrive on outside runs, where they attempt 59.1% of their carries (ninth-most in the NFL). Inside runs, however, account for only 37.6% of their attempts (26th). Buffalo must focus on setting the edge with their defensive ends and outside linebackers, funneling runs back inside where Detroit is less effective.

3. Limit Explosive Plays:
Missed tackles have occasionally plagued Buffalo’s defense. Addressing this issue is crucial against a team like Detroit, which excels at forcing defenders to miss. Gibbs’ explosive potential makes it imperative for Buffalo to get defenders in position and execute their tackles consistently.

A Chance for Redemption

The Bills’ path to victory in Week 15 starts with shutting down the Lions’ rushing attack. While Montgomery and Gibbs pose significant challenges, Buffalo has the opportunity to disrupt Detroit’s rhythm and prove their mettle as a playoff contender.

After a disappointing loss to the Rams, Buffalo can make a statement by taking down the NFC’s top team. And who knows? This game might be just the first chapter in a rivalry that culminates on the biggest stage of all: the Super Bowl. Wouldn’t that be something?