Can Pittsburgh Exceed the Expectations Set by ESPN’s FPI Metric?
The Pittsburgh Steelers have officially punched their ticket to the playoffs, but the journey doesn’t end there. While their recent loss to the Philadelphia Eagles might have left fans uneasy, an ESPN simulation using the Football Power Index (FPI) metric paints an optimistic picture. The Steelers, according to over 10,000 simulations, are projected to win a playoff game — their first in eight years — before exiting in the divisional round.
Steelers’ Path to the Playoffs
ESPN’s simulation has Pittsburgh claiming the AFC North crown with a critical win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. The Steelers are also projected to deliver a narrow 20-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17, a result that would solidify their position as the AFC’s No. 3 seed.
However, their momentum is expected to stall in Week 18 with a loss, allowing the Chiefs to secure the top seed by defeating the Denver Broncos. This sets up a playoff matchup for the Steelers against the Los Angeles Chargers at Acrisure Stadium, where Pittsburgh is predicted to emerge victorious.
Unfortunately, the simulation concludes with the Steelers bowing out in the divisional round against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are then projected to defeat the Ravens in the AFC Championship, advancing to face the Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl — a rematch of their Week 15 showdown.
Realistic Yet Bittersweet Expectations
For a team as storied as the Steelers, simply winning one playoff game may feel underwhelming, especially given their rich postseason history. However, breaking an eight-year drought without a playoff victory is a crucial milestone for Pittsburgh. The win against the Chargers in the simulation reflects their growth and resilience this season.
The divisional-round loss to the Bills, while disappointing, underscores the tough competition in the AFC. With several teams boasting .500 records or better, the path to the Super Bowl is undeniably grueling.
The Role of Health and Momentum
Key to the Steelers’ success down the stretch will be the return of star players. Defensive standout T.J. Watt is expected to suit up against the Ravens on Saturday, a development that could tip the scales in Pittsburgh’s favor. The simulation also highlights the importance of contributions from players like George Pickens and DeShon Elliott, whose health will be critical as the team pushes toward postseason success.
A healthy roster could help the Steelers secure pivotal wins in the coming weeks and enter the playoffs with momentum. Conversely, if injuries persist, the team may struggle to meet or exceed the simulation’s optimistic projections.
Numbers vs. Reality
While ESPN’s FPI simulation provides a well-reasoned projection, games aren’t won on paper. The Steelers have an opportunity to rewrite their narrative and prove the algorithms wrong. A strong showing against the Ravens and Chiefs in the coming weeks could position Pittsburgh as a true contender, rather than a team simply meeting expectations.
A Chance to Surprise
The Steelers’ projected playoff journey reflects their potential but leaves room for improvement. Can Pittsburgh defy the odds and go further than the divisional round? With their postseason fate already secured and star players returning, the stage is set for the Steelers to prove they’re capable of more than what the computers predict.
For fans, one thing is clear: the road to the Super Bowl starts now, and the Steelers are poised to make some noise.
