SEC Bracket Watch 2025: Iowa State’s Loss Benefits Alabama, Auburn, and the SEC
The recent struggles of Iowa State provide an example of how one team’s downfall can shift the fortunes of others. The Cyclones, who were once guaranteed a top two NCAA tournament seed, have now lost three straight games—first falling to Arizona, then losing to Kansas State, and finally being thoroughly beaten by Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse.
Iowa State vs. Kansas
In the game against Kansas, Iowa State’s Keshon Gilbert attempts a shot under pressure from Hunter Dickinson, Flory Bidunga, and AJ Storr.
What does this have to do with the SEC? Quite a bit, actually. Iowa State’s recent skid has benefited three SEC teams, all of whom are now positioned in the No. 1 seed line in most bracket projections, including my latest top 16 overall seeds.
With the SEC’s upcoming major games—such as the Iron Bowl hoops clash on February 15 and matchups involving Tennessee and Alabama—it is clear the conference is on pace for a historic season that could see 13 teams reach the NCAA tournament.
The SEC currently leads the conference RPI, with multiple teams near the top of key metrics. Of the top 20 teams in the NCAA’s NET rankings, six hail from the SEC, boasting a combined 41 Quad I victories. In comparison, the Big Ten also has six teams in the NET, but with only 32 Quad I wins.
This success has allowed three SEC teams to be ranked among the projected top 16 overall seeds:
(Seed ranking in parentheses)
South Region
East Region
Midwest Region
Kentucky Blues
In the last Bracket Watch, the Kentucky Wildcats had just lost consecutive games to Alabama and Vanderbilt, with a crucial two-game stretch against Tennessee and Arkansas ahead. The Wildcats managed a solid win over Tennessee on the road, but then dropped a game to Arkansas, coached by former Kentucky head coach John Calipari.
Following a bewildering defeat at Ole Miss, Kentucky dropped out of the top 16 overall seeds this week, making room for a hot St. John’s team that has won nine straight in the Big East.
Despite this, the strength of the SEC should still help Kentucky’s seeding come March, but they need to secure more quality wins within a tough conference.
The Texas Longhorns are struggling to stay off the bubble, currently sitting at an 11-seed in most projections. Their main issue has been consistency—they haven’t managed a winning streak longer than three games in SEC play. Their most recent streak of four wins came against teams ranked in the Quad IV category, which doesn’t do much for their résumé.
Given the SEC’s deep pool of talent, Texas has another chance to earn a quality Quad I win when they play Arkansas on Wednesday. As for the Razorbacks, though their tournament hopes are slim, they could spoil Texas’ chances of reaching March Madness if they can pull off an upset.
