BYU March Madness Seeding: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Cougars

BYU men’s basketball has been making waves recently, so let’s explore how the NCAA tournament could unfold for the Cougars. With six straight wins and eight in their last ten games, BYU is under the leadership of first-year head coach Kevin Young and gaining attention. They appear to be a near-lock for the NCAA Tournament, marking their second consecutive appearance. However, BYU has faced early exits in four straight tournament appearances (Oregon in 2014, Ole Miss in 2015, UCLA in 2021, and Duquesne in 2024). Here’s a breakdown of their potential outcomes this year.

Best Case Scenario

In my view, the best-case scenario requires BYU to win at least one game in the Big 12 Tournament. If they defeat Iowa State tonight, BYU would secure a two-round bye, essentially guaranteeing a semifinal appearance. A trip to the Big 12 Tournament semifinals would put BYU in the mix for a 5 or 6 seed, rather than the current projection of an 8 or 9 seed. I believe BYU could surpass Kansas (currently projected as a 6 seed) and play its first two NCAA Tournament games in Denver. Current projections would have the Cougars facing Nebraska, followed by either Texas A&M or UVU (Go Wolverines!).

Worst Case Scenario

The worst-case scenario, in my opinion, would involve BYU losing to both Iowa State and Utah at home, and then dropping their first Big 12 Tournament game. This would likely keep them at an 8 seed or drop them to a 9 seed. There are challenges with BYU playing as a 9 seed, particularly since they can’t play games on Sunday, and there are only a few potential locations for them. Realistically, this scenario could push BYU down to a 10 or 11 seed, as seen last year. If that happens, BYU would likely face a stronger opponent than they would as an 8 seed. Here are the current projections for the 6 and 7 seeds, which BYU could potentially face as a 10 or 11 seed:

7 Seeds

6 Seeds

Mississippi State

Kansas

Memphis

Saint Mary’s

Louisville

UCLA

Ole Miss

Marquette

Although BYU could still beat these teams (Kansas, especially), every small advantage matters in March.

Most Likely Scenario

According to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, which tends to be quite reliable, BYU is currently projected as an 8 seed, facing off against 9 seed Utah State in the first round. This is quite the matchup—talk about a throwback! Assuming no upsets, BYU would likely go up against a 1-seeded Houston, a 4-seeded St. John’s, and a 2-seeded Florida on their way to the NCAA Championship. Overall, it’s not the worst path.

Whatever happens, we’ll continue to support our Cougars.

Loyal, strong, and true

Wear the white and blue.