BYU vs Utah Preview: BYU Aims to Redeem Loss on Senior Night
BYU and Utah will meet under much different circumstances than their first matchup on January 18. At that time, Utah had changed up their starting lineup and was on a two-game win streak. Meanwhile, BYU had dropped two games in a row and lacked a Q1 victory. Utah won that game in Salt Lake City in overtime, leading some BYU fans to question Kevin Young’s coaching. Fast forward to now, and BYU is on a 7-game win streak, while Utah is waiting for the Alex Jensen era to begin.
This matchup is a Quad two game for BYU and a Quad one game for Utah.
BYU and Utah by the Numbers
Utah
KenPom: 69
NET: 65
Record: 16-14 (8-11 Big 12)
Notable Wins: Oklahoma State (H), TCU (A), BYU (H), Cincinnati (H), Colorado (H), Kansas (H), Kansas State (H), Arizona State (H)
Losses: Mississippi State (N), Saint Mary’s (H), Iowa (N), Baylor (A), Texas Tech (H), Iowa State (A), Houston (A), Baylor (H), Oklahoma State (A), West Virginia (A/H), Cincinnati (A), UCF (A), Arizona (A)
BYU
KenPom: 23
NET: 24
AP Rank: 23
Record: 22-8 (13-6 Big 12)
Notable Wins: NC State (N), Wyoming (N), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (H), UCF (A), West Virginia (A), Kansas State (H), Kansas (H), Arizona (A), West Virginia (H), Iowa State (A)
Losses: Ole Miss (N), Providence (A), Houston (A), Texas Tech (H), TCU (A), Utah (A), Arizona (H), Cincinnati (A)
KenPom Prediction: BYU 83, Utah 71 — BYU 86% win probability
Spread: BYU -13.5
Point Total: 153.5
Utah Overview
The Utes have shown a stark contrast between their home and away performances. Utah is 7-3 at home in Big 12 play but has struggled on the road, posting a 1-8 record with six straight losses. Their eight road losses have come by an average of 17 points.
In Big 12 play, Utah ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency among the 16 teams. The strength of Utah’s team lies in their frontcourt, with Ezra Ausar and Lawson Lovering, who caused BYU trouble in the first game. The Utes are 3rd in Big 12 offensive rebounding, grabbing 33.6% of their missed shots. They are also 5th in two-point shooting and 4th in defensive two-point shooting.
Offensively, Utah struggles with turnovers and three-point shooting. The Utes rank 15th in turnover percentage, turning the ball over 19.7% of the time. Their 30% shooting from beyond the arc in conference play is one of the worst in the league. Gabe Madsen, the senior guard, leads the Big 12 in three-point attempts with 176 but only hits 29% of them. He could be the key to Utah pulling off an upset, as he has the potential to make multiple threes in a game. BYU will need to focus on defending Madsen.
Defensively, Utah does not force turnovers and struggles against the three-point shot. They force turnovers only 13.7% of the time, the lowest in the Big 12, and allow 34.7% shooting from three, ranking near the bottom of the league.
Prediction
This game has all the signs of a BYU blowout. The energy from the crowd, which will be packed for Senior Night, will fuel BYU as they look to avenge their earlier loss. BYU is playing some of the best basketball in the country, while Utah continues to struggle on the road. Utah’s issues with turnovers and defending the three play into BYU’s strengths.
Though Utah will be motivated to spoil BYU’s Senior Night and win streak, they are mostly playing for pride at this point. The Utes’ frontcourt, led by Lovering and Ausar, could cause BYU problems again, but the Cougars have shown they can defend against strong frontcourts like those of Kansas and Arizona.
I believe BYU will dominate this game. Utah doesn’t force turnovers, and BYU struggles with turnovers only in the face of teams that can force them. Utah’s inability to defend the three will be costly, as BYU is one of the best shooting teams in the Big 12. If BYU keeps Madsen from going off, they could win by a significant margin.
Prediction: BYU 85, Utah 66
Record Straight Up: 22-8
Record Against the Spread: 16-14
