The final competition of Penn State’s wrestling season has arrived. The NCAA Championships commence on Thursday at Wells Fargo Arena in Philadelphia. The event wraps up on Saturday night, with the Nittany Lions aiming for their 12th team championship in the past 14 tournaments.

There is also the possibility of history being made, as Carter Starocci strives to secure his fifth NCAA title—an accomplishment never achieved before. Here’s our projection for how things may unfold on Saturday night:

125 Pounds: Luke Lilledahl

Nate Cobler: Lilledahl, as the No. 1 seed, has what should be the easiest path to a title. However, this division is highly competitive, with any of the top nine seeds capable of winning. As the Big Ten champion, he is expected to cruise to the quarterfinals, where he will likely face either Nebraska’s Caleb Smith or Lehigh’s Sheldon Seymour in a rematch. Lilledahl has already beaten Smith twice, including in the Big Ten finals. He narrowly defeated Seymour earlier in the season, but that was before he fully adjusted to collegiate wrestling. I anticipate Lilledahl overcoming this test and facing another significant challenge in the semifinals against either reigning NCAA champion Richard Figueroa from Arizona State or North Carolina State’s Vincent Robinson. His speed should carry him into the finals for a Big Ten championship rematch against Purdue’s Matt Ramos.

Lilledahl’s projected placement: 1st
Predicted champion: Lilledahl

Jon Sauber: Lilledahl enters as the top seed in a highly competitive weight class. He should advance to the quarterfinals, where a rematch with Nebraska’s Smith from the Big Ten final could await. His toughest challenges will likely come in a semifinal against Figueroa and a championship bout against Purdue’s Matt Ramos. While Lilledahl has had a stellar freshman campaign and a solid shot at reaching the final, I predict he will fall to Figueroa but rebound with a strong finish—allowing Ramos to claim the title.

Lilledahl’s projected placement: 3rd
Predicted champion: Purdue’s Matt Ramos

133 Pounds: Braeden Davis

Cobler: Davis enters his second NCAA Championships in a much different position than last year. He was the No. 1 seed at 125 pounds after winning a Big Ten title but now sits as the No. 8 seed at his new weight. This lower seeding doesn’t give him the best path to the podium, which he missed last season. His year has been filled with ups and downs, making his quarterfinal push difficult. He first has to get past Maryland’s Braxton Brown, who nearly defeated him in the Big Ten Championships. If Davis clears that hurdle, he will face Illinois’ Lucas Byrd, the No. 1 seed, who dominated him in their previous meeting. I don’t see Davis advancing far beyond his seeding.

Davis’ projected placement: 7th
Predicted champion: Arkansas Little Rock’s Nasir Bailey

Sauber: Davis has a lot to prove this week after an inconsistent season marred by injuries. He finished fourth at the Big Ten Championships but suffered a disappointing loss by fall in the third-place match. There’s a scenario where he makes a deep run, but another where he fails to finish in the top eight and doesn’t earn All-American status. A quarterfinal matchup with Illinois’ Byrd, the top seed, presents a major obstacle. Given his struggles this season, it’s hard to envision Davis defeating Byrd, though I still expect him to finish higher than his No. 8 seed. Byrd is likely to reach the finals, where Iowa’s Drake Ayala awaits for their third matchup of the season.

Davis’ projected placement: 5th
Predicted champion: Ayala

141 Pounds: Beau Bartlett

Cobler: The Big Ten boasts the top three seeds in this highly competitive weight class, much like the 125-pound division. Those wrestlers—Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, Bartlett, and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez—are ranked in that order. Among all top seeds, Hardy, who won the Big Ten title, seems the least likely to reach the finals. It was surprising to see both Bartlett and Mendez fall in the Big Ten semifinals two weeks ago, which created the current unpredictability. These two are expected to face off in the semifinals, and with this being Bartlett’s final shot at a title, he will be looking to capitalize on the opportunity.

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