Three Key Lessons from UVA Baseball’s Disheartening Series Against Duke

For the first time in 118 years of competition, the Blue Devils swept the Cavaliers in a three-game series in Charlottesville.

Both Virginia and Duke entered the weekend needing a statement series to turn their seasons around. The previous weekend was difficult for both teams on the west coast; Virginia nearly lost their series to Cal, with a dramatic eight-run ninth inning Saturday saving them, while Duke was swept by Stanford. After a 6-2 loss to Richmond on Wednesday, head coach Brian O’Connor vowed to make changes. Unfortunately, those changes didn’t yield positive results, as the Blue Devils defeated the Cavaliers 9-5, 13-2, and 13-6.

With a 12-10 record overall and 3-6 in ACC play, the pressure is mounting. While many may be concerned, it’s worth remembering that the 2015 Cavaliers also faced struggles, being swept by both Virginia Tech and Louisville and losing two of three to Georgia Tech and Florida State. That team finished with a 15-15 ACC record and ultimately went on to defeat Vanderbilt in Omaha.

This year’s Cavaliers lack a clear identity. As they face a ranked Stanford team coming to Charlottesville next weekend, the team will need to re-evaluate during a midweek matchup with Liberty, a team that has already beaten three ranked ACC teams this season. Here are the key areas for improvement.

Early Deficits Pressure UVA’s Lineup

It’s common for talented teams to struggle at the plate when facing a deficit of three or more runs early in the game. This has been the case for UVA in five of their ten losses this season. The issue is compounded by lineup instability, with players like Chone James and Walker Buchanan getting more opportunities while others, such as Harrison Didawick and Jacob Ference, have underperformed. Didawick and Ference have combined for just five extra-base hits in 107 at-bats this spring, and their lack of production has been a significant issue.

James and Buchanan have performed well, but the overall inconsistency, particularly in the leadoff spot, has hurt the team. The absence of last season’s standout power hitter also leaves a gap. Falling behind early only amplifies these problems. To remedy this, the team should aim to stabilize the lineup, especially early in games, and allow players like Arroyos, Fords, and Godbouts to take more freedom in their at-bats.

Lack of Extra-Base Hits Will Define UVA’s Success

Against Duke, UVA managed only two extra-base hits from their 14 total hits on Sunday, with none leaving the park. In the ACC, it’s tough to consistently score without hitting for extra bases, particularly when free passes are limited. UVA’s .431 slugging percentage ranks 14th in the ACC, and their 19 home runs are the 15th lowest in the conference. In contrast, last year’s team led the ACC in slugging percentage (.563) and hit the third most home runs (116).

Currently, the Cavaliers are on pace for just 46 home runs this season. This would not be enough to make an impact in the ACC Tournament under the old format, as teams like the 2024 Boston College Eagles—who finished last in the ACC with an 8-22 record—outslugged the Cavaliers with 55 home runs. As the weather warms, the team will hopefully hit more home runs, with players like Arroyo doing their part. Ford, Godbout, and Teel will be the key players to watch moving forward.

Relievers Must Execute in High-Pressure Situations

O’Connor opted to use his best bullpen options in Sunday’s game against Duke, focusing on securing a win to salvage the weekend. However, a look at the pitch counts for Ryan Osinski, Matt Lanzendorfer, and Jack O’Connor reveals how challenging the middle innings were for the Cavaliers. Osinski threw 35 pitches for just four outs, Lanzendorfer used 58 pitches for eight outs, and O’Connor needed 28 pitches to get just one out. Together, they walked nine batters and allowed seven runs to score.

This highlights the issue of too many deep counts. When relying on the bullpen for the late innings, pitchers need to avoid nibbling at the corners and focus on getting strikes. With Blanco still recovering and only able to pitch two innings, UVA’s middle relievers must step up. These pitchers will need to develop a reliable “out pitch” for 0-2 and 1-2 counts, especially those in high-leverage situations without a standout pitch.

UVA will host Liberty on Tuesday, where more experimentation with the lineup and shorter leashes for pitchers are expected.