True Grit: Can the Grizzlies Be Taken Seriously as NBA Title Contenders?

Before Ja Morant’s injury, the Memphis Grizzlies looked like potential contenders. Could they still be a sleeper team in the West?

The NBA typically isn’t home to surprise title contenders.

Every season, a select group of teams are seen as legitimate title threats, and these teams dominate the conversation leading up to the playoffs. While there are always a few surprises, it’s easy to predict the teams that will make noise in 2025.

In the Eastern Conference, it’s the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics, while in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets stand out. After the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors also entered the contender conversation. Teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, and Los Angeles Clippers are just behind these powerhouses.

However, when discussing a potential NBA title or conference victory, it’s about upside. One team that hasn’t reached its peak this season but still deserves attention is the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies are a team of contrasts, with a season that’s been both disappointing and unexpectedly strong. They have a star who hasn’t hit top form and is recovering from an injury but showed signs of getting back to his best at the right moment. The team has a core that has struggled in the playoffs before but is now better suited for postseason basketball.

Throughout the season, the Grizzlies have flashed moments of title contender potential, but they haven’t been able to sustain those performances. Still, if Memphis can unlock its full potential, this could be the year an overlooked team makes a deep playoff run.

The Once and Future Superstar

The Grizzlies’ case begins with Ja Morant’s resurgence. Morant was poised to be one of the NBA’s top stars, but injuries and legal issues hindered his performance and reputation. Since returning from a season-ending shoulder injury last year, Morant hasn’t been the same offensive force.

His numbers have dropped this season, with his field-goal percentage at a career low and turnovers at a career high. His free-throw attempts per game have fallen from 8.1 last year to 6.6. Despite these struggles, Morant’s DRIP ranking (Defensive Rating, Individual Player) lags behind Jaren Jackson Jr., who is now seen as the team’s best player.

However, DRIP doesn’t account for Morant’s recovery process. After taking time to adjust his game to avoid further injury, Morant has started to show glimpses of his former self. Before his latest injury in March (a hamstring strain), Morant was playing at a high level, averaging 31.3 points on 52% shooting, and drawing consistent fouls with his aggressive play.

Morant has been regaining the explosive burst that once left defenders scrambling. If he can maintain this form through the postseason, he could be the offensive pillar the Grizzlies need. His hamstring injury has sidelined him since mid-March, but he’s expected to return soon. If he can stay healthy, Morant has proven he can be a difference-maker for Memphis.

A Winning Rotation

If Morant can rediscover his full potential, the Grizzlies’ roster supports him in a way it hasn’t before.

Jaren Jackson Jr. showed efficiency in 2022-23, but his numbers dipped last season when asked to carry a larger load with Morant out. This year, Jackson Jr. has combined his previous efficiency with a larger role and maintained high usage while increasing his effectiveness.

Desmond Bane rounds out the top trio, offering superb movement shooting and secondary playmaking. He can also take over offensive duties when Morant sits, making him the ideal backcourt partner. Defenders can’t afford to leave him open for even a second.

Although this trio has been together for a while, they haven’t found playoff success, winning only one series in three postseason appearances together. Yet, this year, the Grizzlies’ supporting cast is more complete offensively. Previously, the team lacked enough perimeter shooting around Morant, often leaving them stagnant if he wasn’t on fire.

That’s no longer the case.

This season, the Grizzlies are having their best three-point shooting year with their core. In the past, Memphis struggled in playoff exits because of poor shooting from beyond the arc, posting subpar percentages in losses to the Jazz, Warriors, and Lakers in previous seasons.

But with Jackson Jr. improving, Santi Aldama having a career-best shooting year, and rookie Jaylen Wells proving reliable as a shooter, Memphis is far better equipped to stretch the floor.

Jackson Jr.’s shooting and defensive versatility (he was the 2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year) allow the Grizzlies to adapt to different styles. The team can go small with Jackson Jr. at center or leverage Aldama and Wells at forward spots.

If they need size, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey can provide a strong inside presence, and Luke Kennard adds shooting depth off the bench.

Although the loss of Brandon Clarke is a blow, Memphis still has enough talent and flexibility to contend.

Take That For Data

While there are many “ifs” surrounding the Grizzlies’ title hopes, that’s true for most contenders. It’s rare for everything to go right for a team in the playoffs, and to win multiple series, nearly everything has to fall into place.

Nonetheless, the Grizzlies’ stats suggest they belong in the contender conversation. They’re one of only five teams with top-five rankings in both offensive and defensive ratings. Their championship odds have climbed to eighth in TRACR, and their point differential ranks behind only the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics.

Of course, things may not go as planned. Morant could still be limited by injuries, or Jackson Jr.’s defense could be overburdened in the playoffs. But Memphis is one of the rare teams that’s flying under the radar and has the potential to make a serious postseason run.