Texas A&M hasn’t yet met the College Football Playoff standards, but don’t be shocked if their first appearance comes in 2025.

If you had told a Texas A&M fan before 2024 that the Aggies would be in contention for a 12-team College Football Playoff spot in the regular-season finale, they would’ve been just shy of Johnny Manziel-level excitement.

Heading into Year 1 of the Mike Elko era, playoff expectations weren’t realistic. Sure, maybe it wasn’t realistic to think they could beat Texas and Georgia in back-to-back SEC Championship weeks to make the Playoff, but it was at least possible. However, that potential was lost in a disappointing finish to 2024. The team that was the last to lose an SEC game ended up with five losses and no AP Top 25 ranking in the final poll.

No one should be expecting the Aggies to make the Playoff. A program with no Playoff appearances and just two AP Top-25 finishes in the past 11 years is one thing, but their lack of any 21st-century conference title game appearances is another. If the preseason outlook is “Playoff or bust” for A&M, the situation is being misunderstood.

However, two things can be true. While that’s not the expectation, don’t be surprised if A&M actually breaks through to the Playoff for the first time in 2025.

A Playoff path for A&M?

Let’s overlook the fact that one of Elko’s offseason tasks was teaching his secondary how to defend zone coverage — which he admitted after the bowl loss — and focus on what the Aggies have going for them. They’re coming off an 8-win season and rank No. 6 in returning production. They’ll also have continuity at quarterback with Marcel Reed, supported by an offensive line returning all five starters. This echoes A&M’s successful 2020 season, which saw them finish No. 4 in the AP Top 25. All-SEC running back Le’Veon Moss is recovering from a torn ACL, but Rueben Owens’ return is a promising boost for Year 2 of the Collin Klein system.

The loss of Noah Thomas and Jabre Barber will hurt, but NC State transfer KC Concepcion has proven himself at this level. Even with a thin receiver room, Reed having a full offseason with the first-teamers will help after an inconsistent 2024 season. His passing on deep throws (14.8% of attempts) was subpar, and he struggled under pressure.

That’s part of why A&M doesn’t deserve Playoff expectations the way LSU does, despite last year’s results.

Speaking of that game, which was Reed’s breakout performance, it was part of a tough SEC home slate that included A&M’s four biggest games. This year’s schedule will flip those, with four of A&M’s five road games against teams that won at least 9 games, not including home games against a South Carolina offense that shredded A&M in Columbia and a DJ Lagway-led Florida team that reversed the Aggies’ finish.

This is why 7.5 wins (at -152 on FanDuel) is a fair regular season over/under. The most likely results for this A&M team are 7-5 or 8-4, the same record they’ve had in 10 of their 13 regular seasons since joining the SEC. A 7-8 win season wouldn’t surprise anyone.

That said, a team that went 8-4 last season, with the No. 6 returning production rate, a top-10 portal class, and returning coordinators, is a solid contender to improve and go 9-3. As shown by Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina last year, a 9-3 SEC team has a legitimate shot at the 12-team Playoff.

Looking at A&M’s schedule, three games stand out where they’re likely underdogs:

at Notre Dame

at LSU

at Texas

These are likely three preseason top-10 teams for A&M, who has only two true road wins against Power Conference teams in the last three years. Even though the Aggies went 1-2 in these games last year, all were close, so it’s not safe to assume victories here. If A&M wins even one of these, it would be noteworthy.

Now, let’s focus on the rest of A&M’s schedule:

vs. UTSA

vs. Utah State

vs. Auburn

vs. Mississippi State

vs. Florida

at Arkansas

at Mizzou

vs. South Carolina

vs. Samford

Some key points to consider:

Yes, Auburn and South Carolina beat A&M last year, but those were both road games. Auburn, who held on in a 4-overtime game after A&M failed to tie it, had scored just 13 points in its last two visits to Kyle Field, and South Carolina is 0-5 in College Station, with three of those losses by double digits.

Reed defeated Florida decisively in his first career start last year, though DJ Lagway at the helm will give Florida a different vibe this year.

Missouri, who lost 41-10 last year even with a healthy Brady Cook, has been outscored 76-24 by A&M under Eli Drinkwitz.

As for Arkansas, A&M has dominated that matchup, winning 12 of 13 since joining the SEC, despite most of those games being at a neutral site in Jerry World.

My point isn’t that A&M will win every one of these games. There are concerns about replacing the defensive line, the need for an outside receiver addition post-spring, and, as Elko would point out, whether A&M can improve its zone coverage defense in 2025.

But A&M surprised people in Year 1 by starting 5-0 in SEC play. Despite the 3 SEC losses to end the season, what about that 5-0 start felt so out of the ordinary? And what would make winning 9 games in 2025 seem impossible? With Elko’s defensive expertise and an offense that showed promise in SEC play, improvements in Year 2 are plausible.

Some may take this as a declaration that the Aggies are bound for the Playoff, but this is simply an optimistic preseason outlook. When I predict A&M’s season in August, 8-4 will likely be the forecast, and no one will be shocked by it.

That said, don’t dismiss the possibility that Elko, who isn’t Jimbo Fisher or Kevin Sumlin, laid a solid developmental foundation in Year 1. While improvement in the SEC is never guaranteed, having returning pieces like Elko’s could be crucial.

If that leads to A&M finally reaching the Playoff, it wouldn’t be something to be taken by surprise.