Rebounding Will Be Key In The 2025 Final Four Game Between Duke And Houston

Duke’s success will largely depend on keeping Houston off the boards and limiting their second-chance opportunities.

Carter Bryant #9 of the Arizona Wildcats, Cooper Flagg #2, and Tyrese Proctor #5 of the Duke Blue Devils secure a rebound during the first half of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament East Regional Sweet Sixteen at Prudential Center on March 27, 2025, in Newark, New Jersey.

While much attention is on defense, rebounding is a crucial factor in the upcoming Duke-Houston game. Controlling the boards is always important, but it could prove to be especially decisive against Houston.

Why?

Houston thrives on toughness, which is evident not only in their defense but also in their rebounding. Dominating on defense means limiting second-chance opportunities and keeping Houston’s shooting percentages in check.

Let’s examine Houston’s key rebounders:

J’wan Roberts – 6.3

Joseph Tugler – 5.9

Ja’Vier Francis – 5.1

Mylick Wilson – 4.1

Milos Uzman – 3.0

Emanuel Sharp – 3.0

Terrance Arcenaux – 2.7

LJ Cryer – 2.3

And for Duke?

Duke’s rebounding average: 38.6

Houston’s rebounding average: 36.2

The difference is narrow enough to be negligible. However, consider Houston’s four losses. What happened in those games regarding rebounding?

Auburn 74 Houston 69: Auburn grabbed 22 defensive and 11 offensive rebounds. Houston had 18 defensive and 15 offensive, totaling 33 each.

Alabama 85 Houston 80 (OT): Alabama secured 28 defensive and 20 offensive rebounds, while Houston had 23 defensive and 16 offensive, totaling 48-39 in Alabama’s favor.

San Diego State 73 Houston 70 (OT): SDSU grabbed 24 defensive and 14 offensive rebounds, while Houston had 23 defensive and 17 offensive, totaling 40-38 in Houston’s favor.

Texas Tech 82 Houston 81 (OT): Texas Tech had 23 defensive and 14 offensive rebounds, while Houston grabbed 22 defensive and 16 offensive, totaling 38-37 in Houston’s favor.

The outcomes of games like SIUE, Gonzaga, or Tennessee are less insightful since Houston won those with ease. However, their recent tight matchup with Purdue provides some lessons.

Houston dominated the boards against Purdue with 22 defensive and 16 offensive rebounds compared to Purdue’s 22 defensive and 7 offensive, totaling 38-29 in Houston’s favor.

J’Wan Roberts (6-8/235) contributed 12 rebounds (five offensive), while Francis had five, Wilson had four, and Tugler and Uzan each had three.

While stats provide some insights, rebounding is also about heart and effort. Charles Barkley, for example, was listed at 6-6 but was closer to 6-4, yet he averaged 11.7 rebounds per game over his career, surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (11.2). Kevin McHale, at 6-11, averaged only 7.3 rebounds.

Flagg, with the best rebounding average on either team in Saturday’s semifinal, is part of a well-rounded group. While Houston has significantly more experience than Duke, the Blue Devils feature three freshmen starters who are atypical in many ways, but still freshmen.

Houston’s playstyle reminds us of Tony Bennett’s top Virginia teams and Butler in 2010. In those four losses, Houston’s margin of defeat was small: five points, five points, three points, and one point, with three games going to overtime.

No team has been able to break away from them significantly.

Let’s also look at Houston’s shooting in those four losses:

Auburn: 41.4% overall, 38.5% on threes.

Alabama: 36.9% overall, 31.6% on threes.

San Diego State: 37.1% overall, 45.8% on threes.

Texas Tech: 45.3% overall, 35.7% on threes.

Three-point shooting in these losses:

Auburn – 5

Alabama – 6

San Diego State – 11

Texas Tech – 5

Last year’s championship game showed that limiting supporting players’ contributions can be crucial. UConn’s Danny Hurley focused on limiting Purdue’s other players, and it worked. While Houston doesn’t have an Edey, Duke can follow a similar strategy: control the boards and limit three-point shooting.

This may be easier said than done, but Houston’s win over Tennessee is telling. Despite a 42.4% shooting performance, they hit 9 of 25 three-pointers (36%). Tennessee shot just 28.8% overall and 17.2% from beyond the arc. If Tennessee had limited Houston’s three-pointers to five, they could have reduced the deficit significantly, making the game much closer.

If Duke can match Houston’s toughness, control the boards, and limit their outside shooting, they will have a real shot at success.

Finally, consider Houston’s 62-60 win over Purdue, where they scored 20 second-chance points. If Purdue had denied two of those, they would have won. The Cougars also scored 20 points in the paint against Purdue, which could be more challenging against Duke with players like Maluach and Flagg defending the interior.