Since the latter part of his rookie campaign, Amon-Ra St. Brown has ranked among the NFL’s most consistent wideouts. Over the past three seasons, his 340 receptions rank second leaguewide.

In his first two years, what St. Brown lacked most was scoring, with only 11 of 196 catches resulting in touchdowns — a 4.2 percent target-to-TD rate. In 2022 especially, he simply couldn’t seem to convert good chances into six points.

That trend finally reversed in 2023 when St. Brown tallied 10 touchdowns, validating early fantasy projections by analyst John Daigle. He raised the bar even higher in 2024 with 12 scores, the third-most over the past two seasons.

While a touchdown boost was overdue, his last two campaigns likely represent the high end of his production spectrum. Analyst Matt Okada of 4for4.com even estimated his 2024 expected touchdown total at just 6.8.

Okada also leaned into the narrative that Ben Johnson’s exit could negatively impact Detroit’s offense. And if Jameson Williams finally lives up to his hype (skepticism is justified), St. Brown’s red-zone volume may shrink.

Twelve touchdowns last season could stand as his personal best, with 10 from 2023 also looking hard to repeat. Still, assuming 110–115 catches again, a 7–10 touchdown range is realistic for 2025.

While St. Brown’s ceiling seems lower amid uncertainty under new OC John Morton, mild regression doesn’t derail his chances to remain an elite fantasy WR this year.