The Detroit Lions entered the 2024 season as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but heading into Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season, they now find themselves fighting to stay alive in the playoff race.

Detroit sits at 8-6, currently holding the No. 8 seed in the NFC standings. Despite a strong record, the Lions trail both the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers in the competitive NFC North. While a division title is unlikely, Detroit still has realistic paths to the postseason—primarily through the wild-card race.

Below is a full breakdown of the Lions’ playoff chances, scenarios, and remaining schedule.

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Detroit Lions Playoff Chances Entering Week 16

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Lions have a 29% chance of reaching the playoffs. A win in Week 16 would raise those odds to 41%, while a loss would drop them sharply to just 6%.

Detroit’s most realistic route into the playoffs is as a wild-card team, which would require overtaking either Green Bay or Chicago in the standings with help from around the league.

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Lions Playoff Odds

Sportsbooks still give Detroit a fighting chance. The Lions are listed at +190 odds to make the postseason at DraftKings Sportsbook, translating to an implied probability of 34.5%.

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Lions Playoff Scenarios

The Lions cannot clinch a playoff spot or be eliminated in Week 16. However, their margin for error is slim moving forward.

How Detroit Can Catch the Bears

Lions win all remaining three games

Bears lose their final two games

How Detroit Can Pass the Packers

Lions win their final three games and Packers lose at least one, OR

Lions win two of three games and Packers lose both remaining games

Chasing the 49ers for a Wild Card

Detroit could also make the playoffs by finishing ahead of the San Francisco 49ers:

Lions win out and 49ers lose all three games, OR

Lions win out and 49ers lose two games and tie one

However, San Francisco holds the conference-record tiebreaker, meaning Detroit must finish with a better overall record.

Bottom line: the Lions must win multiple games down the stretch to stay alive.

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NFC North Standings (Entering Week 16)

Detroit remains in third place in the division regardless of its Week 16 result.

Chicago Bears: 11-4

Green Bay Packers: 9-5-1

Detroit Lions: 8-6

Chicago’s recent win over Green Bay means Detroit can only catch the Bears by winning out and getting help. Green Bay remains the Lions’ most realistic target in the playoff race.

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Lions Remaining Schedule

Detroit faces the 11th-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to Tankathon, including two divisional road games to close the season.

Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (6-8)

Week 18: at Chicago Bears (11-4)

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Bears Remaining Schedule

Chicago can clinch the NFC North with one more win, but the road isn’t easy.

Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (8-6)

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Packers Remaining Schedule

Green Bay’s final two opponents both have losing records entering Week 16.

Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)

Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings (6-8)

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NFL Playoff Picture – Week 16 Snapshot

NFC Teams in the Hunt

Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

Chicago Bears (11-4)

Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Los Angeles Rams (11-4)

San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

Still alive: Detroit Lions (8-6), Carolina Panthers (7-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

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Final Takeaway

The Detroit Lions’ playoff hopes are slim but still alive. Winning out is essential, and help from division rivals is required. While the NFC North title remains a long shot, a wild-card berth is still within reach if Detroit handles its business and gets favorable results elsewhere.

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