The Detroit Lions watched their playoff hopes take a massive hit over Thanksgiving and Black Friday, suffering one of the sharpest drops in postseason probability of any team this season.

Detroit entered the holiday week in great position, but their Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers—paired with wins by both the Cowboys and Bears—was the worst possible combination of outcomes. As a result, their postseason odds collapsed.

According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Lions opened the week with a strong 73% chance of punching a playoff ticket. Two days later, that number sank to just 32%, a staggering 41-point decline.

Here’s how the NFC picture shifted

NFC North standings

Chicago Bears: 9–3

Green Bay Packers: 8–3–1

Detroit Lions: 7–5

Minnesota Vikings: 4–7

Detroit now trails Chicago by two full games and Green Bay by one and a half. In theory, they can still catch both, but it would require almost mistake-free football from here on out. Their Week 18 showdown with the Bears does give them a potential tiebreaker advantage—but only if they can close the gap first.

The bigger issue? Chicago may actually be legit. Despite a brutal upcoming slate (two vs. Green Bay, plus the Browns, 49ers, and Lions), the Bears have won nine of their past ten and just marched into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles in their own stadium.

Green Bay isn’t an easy target either. Even though the Packers also face a tough road (two against Chicago, plus Denver, Baltimore, and Minnesota), Detroit must outperform them by two wins over the next five games to leapfrog them.

Put simply: a third straight NFC North crown is close to off the table. The New York Times now estimates just a 4% chance of Detroit taking the division.

The silver lining is that only six teams appear to be in serious Wild Card contention. Atlanta and Minnesota—both 4–7—sit at 1% or worse in playoff probability.

But the problem? Detroit is effectively two games out of the final playoff spot with only five weeks remaining. They need to track down one of these four teams, all of whom hold roughly a two-game cushion:

9–3 Bears

8–3–1 Packers

8–3 Seahawks

8–4 49ers

They trail Chicago by two games. They’re 1.5 back of the Packers, which may as well be two because Green Bay holds the tiebreaker. They’re also 1.5 behind Seattle and will likely slip to a full two-game deficit once the Seahawks face the Vikings.

The 49ers scenario is the trickiest. Detroit is technically only one game behind San Francisco, but the 49ers have a major advantage in conference record—8–2 versus Detroit’s 4–4. Even if the Lions win all remaining NFC matchups, the best they can do is tie San Francisco at 8–4. The 49ers still have conference games against the Bears and Seahawks, so a path exists—but it’s razor thin.

The next tiebreaker after conference record is performance in common games. Those opponents are the Rams, Buccaneers, Giants, and Bears. Detroit is currently 3–0 with two of those games still left; the 49ers sit at 2–2 with only Chicago remaining. So while unlikely, there is a sliver of hope for the Lions to overtake San Francisco if everything breaks perfectly.

Detroit also has another immediate concern: the surging Cowboys. Dallas has won three straight and sits just behind Detroit in the standings. The Lions can bury them with a Thursday win—but if they lose, they would need to leapfrog two teams with only four games left, essentially requiring a complete sweep the rest of the way. Should Detroit fall on Thursday, their playoff odds would plummet to around 14% per the New York Times.