After Detroit’s controversial defeat agains the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Lions’ playoff situation has become extremely straightforward — and unforgiving.

Detroit must win its final two matchups against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, while the Green Bay Packers must lose both of their remaining games. Any Lions loss or Packers victory would immediately eliminate Detroit from postseason contention and shut the door on a late-season surge.

With no room for mistakes, here’s a breakdown of the four remaining games that matter most, ranked from the most realistic outcome to the least. This includes Detroit’s final two contests and Green Bay’s final two, all of which now carry enormous weight following the Lions’ recent defensive struggles.

1. Lions Defeat Vikings in Week 17

Detroit came close to pulling off a win against Pittsburgh and showed clear urgency throughout the game. Even without an effective ground attack, the Lions managed to score 24 points and had two additional touchdowns wiped off the board by penalties. Given those circumstances, it’s hard to imagine Minnesota’s offense consistently matching Detroit’s output in a game where the Lions’ season is on the line.

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy has had a rough sophomore campaign, tallying just 1,450 passing yards while throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11). Even a shaky Detroit defense should have opportunities to disrupt the young quarterback and allow the Lions to seize early momentum on the road.

2. Ravens Take Down Packers in Week 17

Green Bay enters this matchup dealing with significant uncertainty at quarterback, as both Jordan Love and Malik Willis are battling injuries. There’s a legitimate scenario where Clayton Tune ends up starting against Baltimore. If Love clears concussion protocol, the outlook shifts dramatically, but Lions fans still have reasons to hope.

Baltimore is locked in a tight race atop the AFC North and cannot afford a slip-up. Facing an injury-depleted Packers team, the Ravens should bring maximum intensity. Green Bay has already lost two straight games, and a third consecutive defeat could weigh heavily on them heading into a do-or-die Week 18.

3. Lions Beat Bears in Week 18

This game’s difficulty largely depends on Chicago’s playoff positioning. If the Bears are still competing for NFC seeding, they’ll likely treat this matchup seriously, which could spell trouble for a Detroit defense that has struggled to stop anyone.

There’s also an intriguing storyline involving Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who previously worked in Chicago. Whether or not the Bears have anything at stake, Johnson could have added motivation to make a statement against his former team. Add in the natural intensity of a divisional rivalry, and this matchup figures to be anything but easy if Detroit’s season is still alive.

4. Vikings Upset Packers in Week 18

This is the outcome that feels the least likely to benefit Detroit. Even if everything breaks right in Week 17, asking Minnesota to knock off Green Bay in the final week is a tall order. Brian Flores’ defense and J.J. McCarthy would need to deliver under immense pressure.

Jordan Love is currently in concussion protocol but is widely expected to return by Week 18. Whether it’s Love or Willis under center, Green Bay should have the edge. The teams’ earlier meeting ended decisively in the Packers’ favor, a 23–6 victory, making this scenario the hardest for Lions fans to believe in.

Taken together, the path ahead is grim. Detroit’s postseason hopes hinge on multiple favorable outcomes that are far from guaranteed. As the final weeks approach, the possibility of falling short of playoff expectations — and missing the postseason entirely — is becoming increasingly real for the Lions and their supporters.