The Green Bay Packers (7–3–1) head into Thanksgiving needing one of their best performances of the year, because the Detroit Lions (7–4) present a major threat. Detroit enters this matchup with a loaded offense, a sharp quarterback in Jared Goff, and a defensive disruptor in Aidan Hutchinson. Add in a short turnaround, a fired-up home crowd, and extra urgency in the playoff race, and Green Bay has plenty to be concerned about.
Here are the three biggest reasons Detroit could control this showdown.
1. Jahmyr Gibbs: The Lions’ Gamebreaker
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs might be the most explosive runner in today’s NFL—and his production stacks up against some of the greatest ever. Among running backs with at least 575 career attempts, no one has averaged more yards per rush than Gibbs’ 5.64. This year, despite ranking just 16th in attempts, he’s third in rushing yards thanks to a ridiculous 6.14 yards per carry. In NFL history, among backs with 150+ carries in a season, only Jim Brown and Jamaal Charles have posted better efficiency.
Detroit’s success tends to follow Gibbs’ output. In their 32 wins with him, he’s averaged just over 6 yards per attempt and piled up 33 touchdowns. In losses, those numbers fall off a cliff.
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley knows exactly what kind of threat he’s up against. Last week against the Giants, Gibbs exploded for 219 yards on just 15 carries, including touchdown sprints of 49 and 69 yards. Remove those two long runs, and he still averaged nearly 8 yards per carry.
Hafley emphasized that even the smallest mistake can be fatal:
Players must stay in their assigned gaps
Any hesitation or misalignment can lead to a breakaway run
Defensive pursuit must be relentless
Green Bay has actually been strong against the run this season, ranking in the top 10 in both yards allowed per game and per carry. They also held Gibbs to 19 yards in Week 1. But that was at Lambeau Field—this time, he’ll be running on the fast indoor turf of Ford Field, where he’s historically been far more dangerous.
2. Detroit’s Fourth-Down Aggression
A major trend in the NFL is the increased willingness to go for it on fourth down, and the Lions—under Dan Campbell—are one of the league’s leading adopters. They’ve already attempted 23 fourth-down conversions, the fifth-most in the league.
This approach puts the Packers in a bind. Green Bay’s defense thrives when it forces passing situations, allowing its pass rush to dictate the play. But teams increasingly choose short, safe plays on third down, simply aiming to reach fourth-and-short instead of converting immediately. That neutralizes one of Green Bay’s biggest strengths.
.Teams like the Panthers and Giants have already shown how effective this strategy can be against the Packers. Campbell naturally leans toward an aggressive philosophy, and with his playmakers—Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Goff—those decisions are often high-percentage.
Hafley noted that in today’s NFL:
A drive starting at the 35 after a touchback can reach field-goal range quickly
Kickers now routinely hit from 55+ yards
Third-and-medium is essentially “second-and-medium” for teams planning to go for it on fourth down
He also acknowledged the danger for Detroit: in their 2023 loss to Green Bay, the Lions converted just one of five fourth-down attempts. Still, Campbell’s aggressiveness is an integral part of Detroit’s identity, and the Packers will have to plan around it.
3. Ford Field: Detroit’s True Advantage
The Lions are a different team inside Ford Field. They’re 4–1 at home this year compared to 3–3 away. Nearly every key player on the roster performs significantly better under the dome.
Has had multiple big games against Green Bay in Detroit, including 109 yards in 2021 and 95 yards in 2023
Matt LaFleur emphasized how much Detroit benefits from noise and timing indoors, especially with Hutchinson’s explosive first step. Green Bay could be in a tough spot with their interior line: center Sean Rhyan will be making just his third career start, guard Anthony Belton may be making his first, and both will have to operate in an environment where communication is often nearly impossible.
Ford Field amplifies Detroit’s strengths on both sides of the ball. For a young Packers offense—and a quarterback playing through a shoulder injury—this atmosphere could be overwhelming.
