Back in September, the idea of the Detroit Lions entering Week 18 already eliminated from playoff contention would’ve sounded absurd. This was supposed to be a Super Bowl-caliber roster, a team built to play deep into January. Instead, the Lions find themselves staring at the end of a disappointing 2025 NFL season.

And yet, despite the season feeling effectively over, one game remains: a Week 18 road matchup against the Chicago Bears, led by former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Normally, a division win to close the year would be viewed as a positive. This time, however, the opposite may be true.

In a strange twist, losing to the Bears could actually benefit the Lions more than winning.

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Why Losing in Week 18 Could Help the Lions

From a roster-building standpoint, the most obvious benefit of a loss is improved draft positioning. A higher draft pick provides more flexibility for a team that suddenly has major questions heading into the 2026 season.

But the more significant incentive goes beyond the draft—it’s about the 2026 NFL schedule.

As things currently stand, Detroit sits in fourth place in the NFC North. Finishing last in the division would lock the Lions into a fourth-place schedule in 2026, meaning matchups against:

New York Giants

Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals

That slate is noticeably softer than the alternative.

If the Lions finish third in the NFC North, their schedule would instead include:

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders

Los Angeles Rams (subject to final standings)

The difference in difficulty is significant for a team attempting to regroup, rebuild confidence, and reset expectations.

Key scenario breakdown:

If Detroit loses to Chicago, they are guaranteed a last-place schedule.

If Detroit wins, and the Packers defeat the Vikings, the Lions jump to a third-place schedule.

Suddenly, winning in Week 18 doesn’t look nearly as appealing.

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Why Resting Starters Makes Sense for Detroit

Given the circumstances, the smart, strategic approach would be for Dan Campbell to rest his key contributors.

That includes any player dealing with even minor injuries, such as:

Penei Sewell

Taylor Decker

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Alim McNeill

There is no competitive upside to risking a serious injury in a game that could actively hurt Detroit’s draft position and future schedule.

Around the league, teams in similar situations routinely prioritize health and evaluation. Playing younger players, testing depth pieces, and protecting core starters is often the most responsible move.

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The Dan Campbell Dilemma

Of course, this is easier said than done.

Dan Campbell is not built to tank. His coaching identity is rooted in effort, toughness, and competing until the final whistle. Mailing in a game—even a meaningless one—goes against everything he represents.

That mentality is a major reason why he’s respected in the locker room and beloved by fans.

Still, there are moments when the smartest decision isn’t the toughest one, but the most strategic one.

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The Bottom Line for the Detroit Lions

The Lions don’t need emotional momentum from a meaningless Week 18 win. What they need is:

A more favorable 2026 schedule

A higher NFL Draft pick

A healthier roster entering the offseason

As strange as it sounds, losing to the Bears in Week 18 may give Detroit its best chance to rebound next season.

And if that’s where the Lions are right now, it perfectly captures how far this season drifted from the expectations set back in September.