Green Bay’s late-game collapse against Chicago didn’t just sting Packers fans — it also reshaped the Detroit Lions’ postseason outlook.
If the Packers had protected their 10-point advantage late in the fourth quarter, Detroit’s playoff probability would have climbed to 32%. Instead, following the loss, the Lions’ chances dropped sharply to 22%, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.
Below is a breakdown of how that result affects Detroit and what paths remain for the Lions as the regular season winds down.
NFC North race update
With the win, Chicago now holds a strong grip on the NFC North and controls its own destiny. Even so, Detroit still has a narrow — but real — opportunity to claim the division title.
Detroit wins the NFC North if all of the following happen:
The Lions win their remaining games against the Steelers, Vikings, and Bears
Chicago loses next week to the San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay drops at least one game against either Baltimore or Minnesota
If that combination plays out, Detroit and Chicago would both finish at 11–6, while Green Bay could finish no better than 10–6–1. Thanks to a season sweep of the Bears, the Lions would come out on top.
NFC playoff standings snapshot
Wild Card race (top three qualify): 5. Rams (11–4) – clinched
6. 49ers (10–4)
7. Packers (9–5–1)
8. Lions (8–6)
9. Panthers (7–7)
(x = clinched playoff spot)
Detroit currently trails Green Bay by one game. A win over Pittsburgh on Sunday would narrow that gap to just half a game, but it still wouldn’t give the Lions full control of their postseason fate. Outside results will be required.
Remaining playoff paths for Detroit
The Lions can still reach the playoffs under several different scenarios:
Detroit wins its final three games and San Francisco loses all remaining matchups (Colts, Bears, Seahawks)
Detroit wins out and Green Bay loses to either Baltimore or Minnesota
Detroit wins out and Chicago loses to San Francisco
Detroit finishes 2–1 over its final three games and Green Bay loses both remaining contests
Because of these possibilities, a loss to Pittsburgh would not immediately eliminate Detroit.
However, in that case, the Lions would need Green Bay to lose out and would have to win their final two games to stay alive.
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