The Detroit Lions are running out of room for error, making their upcoming matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers critical for their postseason chances.

Currently sitting eighth in the NFC standings, Detroit is just outside the seven available playoff spots. Their situation became more difficult Saturday night after the Chicago Bears pulled off a dramatic overtime comeback against the Green Bay Packers.

Following that result, Detroit’s playoff odds dropped from 27% to 22%, according to the New York Times Playoff Predictor.
Chicago’s win was unexpected. Trailing by 10 points late in the fourth quarter, the Bears kicked a field goal to close the gap before successfully recovering an onside kick.

Quarterback Caleb Williams then connected with undrafted rookie Jahdae Walker on a touchdown pass to force overtime. In the extra period, a botched snap by Green Bay on fourth down handed the ball to Chicago, and Williams sealed the victory with a touchdown pass to D.J. Moore.

Despite hurting Detroit’s wild-card chances, the Bears’ victory keeps a narrow path open for the Lions to potentially claim the division. Detroit closes the season against Chicago and could own the head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record, assuming the Lions sweep the season series.

For that scenario to matter, Detroit would need to win its next two games, Chicago would have to lose to the San Francisco 49ers next week, and Green Bay would need to drop at least one of its remaining games and finish no better than 10-6-1. That would set up a Week 18 showdown with the division title at stake.
Still, Chicago’s comeback significantly reduced Detroit’s margin for mistakes.

If the Lions lose to Pittsburgh on Sunday, their playoff odds fall to just 4%.
After facing the Steelers, Detroit heads to Minnesota for a Christmas matchup with the Vikings. Meanwhile, Chicago takes on the 49ers and Green Bay faces the Ravens. The regular season concludes with Lions vs. Bears and Packers vs. Vikings.

Although a loss this weekend wouldn’t mathematically eliminate Detroit, the path forward becomes extremely narrow. There are only four remaining routes to the postseason, with the clearest being three straight Lions wins combined with Chicago losses to both Detroit and San Francisco.

Other possibilities include Detroit winning out while Green Bay drops one of its final two games, or Detroit winning out while San Francisco loses its remaining three contests. The 49ers still have games against the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks.
If Detroit drops one of its next two games, the only remaining playoff scenario requires a Week 18 win over Chicago and losses by Green Bay to both Baltimore and Minnesota.

Below is the updated NFC playoff picture heading into Sunday’s games:
Seattle Seahawks (12–3)
Chicago Bears (11–4)
Philadelphia Eagles (10–5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–7)
Los Angeles Rams (10–4)
San Francisco 49ers (10–4)
Green Bay Packers (9–5–1)