March Madness Insights: BYU Poised for a Strong Run, Gonzaga Likely Underseeded

Additionally, trendy upset picks had a mixed outcome while the top seeds dominated the first day of the NCAA men’s tournament.

Kevin Sweeney

The first full day of the 2025 NCAA men’s tournament has concluded. It was a relatively quiet day, with a couple of notable upsets from McNeese State and Drake, but no truly unforgettable March moments. We did, however, see two No. 1 seeds in action, Rick Pitino on the sidelines in Providence, and the Kansas Jayhawks’ disappointing season come to a fitting end. Here’s what we took away from the first day of the round of 64.

Mixed Results for Popular Upset Picks

Several of the most popular Cinderella picks played on the tournament’s first day, and the outcomes were varied. The most widely selected upset, according to NCAA.com data, was Drake over Missouri, and the Bulldogs delivered, extending their dream season under head coach Ben McCollum. Missouri pushed late after trailing by as much as 15, but Drake pulled away again, thanks to the stellar play of point guard Bennett Stirtz. McNeese State also drew attention for its controversial head coach Will Wade and manager Amir Khan, who has become a social media sensation with his NIL deals. Many were skeptical of McNeese’s chances after their poor showing against Gonzaga last year, but this time, the Cowboys led for 34 minutes and secured their first-ever NCAA tournament win.

On the flip side, over 30% of brackets picked UC San Diego to beat Michigan, Yale to upset Texas A&M, or High Point to topple Purdue, according to NCAA data. While all three games were competitive, none resulted in the upset that many were hoping for.

BYU Looks Ready to Make a Strong Run

BYU entered the tournament as one of the hottest teams, ranked in the top 10 over the last two months of the season, according to T-Rank. Despite facing a tough first-round opponent in VCU, known for its guard play, athleticism, and defense, the Cougars passed their first big test with flying colors.

The final score didn’t fully reflect the game’s dynamics: BYU led most of the game, with a 20-point advantage in the second half and a 15-point lead with two minutes left, before VCU made a few garbage-time baskets. BYU put up a remarkably efficient offensive performance, scoring over 1.2 points per possession, even with just seven three-pointers. NBA draft prospect Egor Demin handled pressure well, and Fousseyni Traore came off the bench for 13 points and nine rebounds, giving the team a spark. BYU has the shooting, guard play, and physicality to make a serious run in this tournament. While Wisconsin will be a tough opponent, don’t be surprised if BYU makes a deep tournament run.

Gonzaga’s Underseeded Status Becomes Clear

One of the major surprises during Selection Sunday was Gonzaga being slotted as a No. 8 seed. While the Bulldogs’ resume wasn’t perfect, it was clear that any team drawing Gonzaga would have a tough matchup. This became evident quickly on Thursday when Gonzaga jumped to a 27-3 lead and never looked back, securing a 21-point victory. This sets up a highly anticipated second-round showdown with the Houston Cougars. Gonzaga has climbed to No. 7 in KenPom’s rankings, making this matchup feel more like an Elite Eight or Final Four contest, rather than a typical first-weekend game. This is great for fans, but Houston’s Kelvin Sampson likely isn’t thrilled with the draw.

Top Seeds Take Care of Business

Heading into the tournament, there was a lot of talk about the strength of the top seeds, which could lead to fewer major surprises than in previous years. After the first day, that prediction held up, with every top-four seed winning, and few being seriously challenged. Houston, the No. 1 seed, crushed SIU Edwardsville, while Auburn took control in the second half after Alabama State hung around early. St. John’s started slow, but neither the Red Storm nor the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers were ever in danger. Wisconsin dispatched Montana with ease, and Texas Tech eventually pulled away from UNCW to keep the No. 3 seeds perfect. Purdue and Texas A&M also took care of their respective upset contenders, High Point and Yale.

Will the chalky results continue throughout the tournament? Only time will tell. However, the lack of major upsets means we could see some thrilling matchups in the second round and beyond.